Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:37:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C2
0xc293…c389
weather · 561 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
+$354 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$67 · open +$40
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$353
Realized+$67
Unrealized+$40
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses508 / 46
Open positions5
Markets (closed)554 / 561
History coverage96d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day34.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 5 History 554 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$99
14 days−$130
30 days−$238
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? No 93¢ 96¢ $126 $131 +$5 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? No 86¢ 86¢ $127 $128 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Yes 44¢ 100¢ $20 $45 +$25 (+127%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Yes 65¢ 99¢ $20 $30 +$10 (+52%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 16? No 95¢ 90¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 14? Jun 14 $128 +$29 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 15? Jun 14 $123 +$6 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 14? Jun 13 $38 +$1 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $60 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $68 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $121 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $120 +$36 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $113 +$14 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 5? Jun 05 $99 −$99 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 4? Jun 04 $104 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 4? Jun 04 $58 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 5? Jun 04 $120 +$11 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C or below on June 4? Jun 04 $117 +$8 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 04 $15 +$2 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on June Jun 04 $81 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 3? Jun 04 $85 +$15 +18%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 3? Jun 04 $9 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 3? Jun 03 $12 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 3? Jun 03 $14 +$6 +43%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on June 5? Jun 03 $12 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 3? Jun 03 $131 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 3? Jun 03 $6 +$2 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 3? Jun 03 $128 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 2? Jun 02 $148 +$10 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 2? Jun 02 $78 +$12 +16%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 2? Jun 02 $35 +$5 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 2? Jun 02 $46 −$45 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 2? Jun 02 $205 −$142 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 2? Jun 02 $47 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 2? Jun 02 $18 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 2? Jun 02 $184 +$16 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 2? Jun 02 $95 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 1? Jun 02 $95 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 1? Jun 02 $13 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 1? Jun 02 $53 +$7 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 1? Jun 02 $144 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 1? Jun 02 $191 −$137 -72%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 68°F or higher on Jun Jun 01 $137 +$8 +6%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ju Jun 01 $43 +$9 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 1? Jun 01 $114 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June Jun 01 $60 +$13 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 66°F or higher on June 1? Jun 01 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or below on June 2? May 31 $19 +$1 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 31? May 31 $124 +$12 +10%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C or higher on June 1? May 31 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 31? May 31 $99 +$8 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 31? May 31 $65 −$25 -38%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on May 31? May 30 $25 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on May 29? May 30 $133 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 29? May 29 $26 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $28 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $28 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $28 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $28 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? BUY No 86¢ $68 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? BUY No 85¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? BUY No 85¢ $54 2h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $19 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 5h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $9 5h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $121 5h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $28 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $75 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $14 6h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 44¢ $21 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $10 11h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $20 11h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $7 11h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $20 11h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $10 11h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $0 18h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $13 26h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $71 26h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $3 26h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $13 26h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $2 26h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $4 26h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $16 27h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $4 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +11.1% +0.6% 100% 38% +2.1%
≤30d 151 +4.3% -5.6% 92% 33% -12.0%
≤90d 525 +2.8% -7.0% 92% 20% -9.4%
all 554 +2.5% -7.2% 92% 20% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover34.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.2% 20% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -16.1% 5% -18.0%
15% -24.2% 1% -25.9%
20% -31.6% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $352.84 · official $352.84 (match) · 3500 history records