Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:28:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C2 0xc294…302e crypto 18 markets active 1d ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$12 (-4%) realized −$10 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate33%5W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$26
14 days−$32
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -10.8% -19.3% 27% 27% -19.6%
≤30d 15 -13.7% -21.9% 33% 27% -19.8%
≤90d 15 -13.7% -21.9% 33% 27% -19.8%
all 15 -13.7% -21.9% 33% 27% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 27% -19.8%
10% -29.4% 20% -27.5%
15% -36.2% 13% -34.5%
20% -42.5% 7% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses5 / 10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)15 / 18
History coverage9d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? Yes 89¢ 74¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? Yes 86¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 22? Yes 74¢ 69¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? Jun 17 $20 −$11 -53%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? Jun 16 $30 −$7 -24%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 20? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +89%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 14? Jun 14 $20 −$5 -26%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? Jun 14 $30 −$13 -42%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 15? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -15%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? Jun 13 $48 +$13 +27%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +42%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $45 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 11? Jun 11 $19 −$3 -17%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 10? Jun 10 $25 +$4 +17%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 9? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 8? Jun 08 $5 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? BUY No 4¢ $5 31h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 32h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 32h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? BUY Yes 87¢ $5 36h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 22? BUY Yes 74¢ $5 39h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? BUY No 2¢ $0 40h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? BUY No 4¢ $5 41h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? BUY No 3¢ $5 42h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? SELL Yes 83¢ $4 45h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? SELL Yes 86¢ $6 45h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? SELL No 7¢ $1 45h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 20? SELL Yes 80¢ $9 45h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? SELL Yes 98¢ $15 45h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? BUY No 51¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 20? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? BUY No 69¢ $5 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? BUY No 83¢ $5 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? BUY No 65¢ $5 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? SELL No 66¢ $5 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? SELL No 62¢ $5 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 15? SELL Yes 81¢ $9 3d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 14? SELL Yes 98¢ $15 3d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 15? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 4d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 15? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 4d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 14? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.56 · official $17.56 (match) · 102 history records