Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:29:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc294…4659 world 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 270d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$48 (+3%) realized +$48 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate28%12W / 31L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$7
14 days−$22
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% −$20
other 16% +$63
politics 8% $0
sports 6% $0
economics 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -2.2% -11.5% 18% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 22 +49.1% +34.9% 27% 5% -10.9%
≤90d 22 +49.1% +34.9% 27% 5% -10.9%
all 43 +27.0% +14.9% 28% 5% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.9% 5% -7.2%
10% +3.9% 5% -16.1%
15% -6.2% 5% -24.2%
20% -15.4% 5% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +49% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×3.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.42 per $1 lost it wins $2.42
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

270d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses12 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage270d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $70 −$1 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $71 −$1 -1%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $81 −$3 -3%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $22 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $71 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $45 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $79 −$1 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $73 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $109 −$2 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $134 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -17%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $74 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $57 −$14 -25%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $9 −$2 -26%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 08 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $92 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $91 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $67 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $69 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $89 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $64 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $86 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $38 +$69 +180%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 07 $5 $0 +4%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Oct 04 $20 $0 +1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 29 $4 $0 -3%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 28 $21 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 28 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 28 $21 $0 -0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 27 $7 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 27 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $22 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 25 $28 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 73¢ $69 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 74¢ $70 4h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $26 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $17 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $26 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $17 10h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $27 10h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $27 10h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 89¢ $78 12h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 92¢ $81 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 35h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 35h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 35h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 35h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $22 40h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $71 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $71 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $43 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $2 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $45 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $9 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $11 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $50 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $7 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $58 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $27 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $11 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $36 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $73 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.65 · official $0.00 (match) · 161 history records