Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:32:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc297…8818 other 80 markets active 12h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-5%) realized −$4 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%42W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$1
sports 28% −$2
crypto 19% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -9.7% -18.3% 50% 42% -22.9%
≤30d 76 -4.6% -13.6% 55% 45% -15.3%
≤90d 76 -4.6% -13.6% 55% 45% -15.3%
all 76 -4.6% -13.6% 55% 45% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 45% -15.3%
10% -21.9% 37% -23.4%
15% -29.5% 32% -30.8%
20% -36.4% 28% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses42 / 34
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)76 / 80
History coverage14d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-27%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Yes 21¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +121%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +73%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +42%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +59%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +298%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +71%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +92%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +196%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -62%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +17%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +101%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +111%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +22%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bolivia vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2 +$1 +49%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $2 $0 +10%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Hungary vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +114%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +139%
Will Burkina Faso win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Armenia vs. Moldova end in a draw? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +78%
Will Ethiopia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 $0 +28%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $2 $0 +23%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $2 $0 +8%
Will Croatia vs. Slovenia end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 $0 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 12h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 13h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 97¢ $2 15h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 18h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $3 37h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 38h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 38h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 38h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 38h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 41h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $2 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 90¢ $4 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $1 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.82 · official $2.82 (match) · 151 history records