Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:54:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C2 0xc29c…1e43 sports 461 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$352 (+1%) realized +$1,167 · open −$815
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate56%247W / 198L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day53.9pace
Fees−$296est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$515now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$313
14 days−$420
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$151
crypto 16% −$354
other 4% −$587
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 127 -8.5% -17.2% 53% 53% -7.5%
≤30d 445 +1.2% -8.4% 56% 55% -9.4%
≤90d 445 +1.2% -8.4% 56% 55% -9.4%
all 445 +1.2% -8.4% 56% 55% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.4% 55% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 53% -18.1%
15% -25.2% 49% -26.0%
20% -32.5% 38% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$47 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$515
Realized+$1,167
Unrealized−$815
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses247 / 198
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$296
Open positions16
Markets (closed)445 / 461
History coverage18d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day53.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 445 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs KOLESIE 57¢ 56¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Playoffs Ground Zero 77¢ 77¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs Walczaki 56¢ 46¢ $60 $49 −$11 (-18%)
Valorant: X-CAST vs ARETE (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season ARETE 63¢ 61¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Rainbow Six Siege: Elevate vs Team Orchid (BO1) - Asia Pacific League Asia - Stage 1 Group Stage Elevate 40¢ 38¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 66¢ 60¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs KT Rolster Challengers 43¢ 38¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Dynamo Esports 41¢ 6¢ $200 $32 −$168 (-84%)
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Resilience 64¢ 64¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs JiJieHao 61¢ 60¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Power Rangers 51¢ 50¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: gothboiclique vs Sangal ALTERS (BO3) - TESFED League Play-In gothboiclique 68¢ 50¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-26%)
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage FlyQuest 30¢ 0¢ $195 $0 −$195 (-100%)
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Division One 46¢ 0¢ $210 $0 −$210 (-100%)
Valorant: STREAMER ARENA vs FUSION (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Season FUSION 24¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Season BESTIA 48¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 145 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$21 +70%
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta Jun 17 $137 −$95 -69%
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $56 −$55 -98%
Counter-Strike: RED Canids Academy vs 4M (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Séri Jun 17 $50 +$24 +48%
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $10 −$1 -8%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $127 +$137 +108%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ame Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $51 +$35 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $131 −$130 -99%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $20 +$18 +89%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 17 $41 +$6 +14%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $91 +$18 +20%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $20 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $10 −$1 -7%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $25 +$19 +76%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $30 +$21 +70%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $30 +$27 +89%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $30 +$14 +48%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$43 +43%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 16 $312 −$25 -8%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $107 −$58 -55%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $51 +$35 +70%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $20 +$14 +70%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 16 $32 −$31 -98%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 16 $71 +$41 +58%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $40 +$25 +62%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $41 +$29 +71%
Dota 2: G-Time vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 16 $30 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Jun 16 $51 +$26 +52%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 15 $51 +$33 +66%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs Wingman (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playof Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $404 −$400 -99%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $51 +$29 +57%
Dota 2: Nande+4 vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 15 $22 +$7 +34%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $30 +$22 +73%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut Jun 15 $40 +$21 +52%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $305 −$300 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $40 +$23 +57%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $345 −$340 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $30 +$20 +67%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$45 +90%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P BUY Walczaki 56¢ $61 8m
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P SELL TDK 60¢ $43 8m
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr BUY Dynamo Esports 29¢ $51 25m
Rainbow Six Siege: Elevate vs Team Orchid (BO1) - Asia Pacific League BUY Elevate 40¢ $51 33m
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr BUY Dynamo Esports 38¢ $51 44m
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY FlyQuest 7¢ $10 47m
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY FlyQuest 22¢ $26 55m
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr BUY Dynamo Esports 45¢ $51 57m
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY FlyQuest 32¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed SELL ECHO 43¢ $35 1h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed BUY KOLESIE 57¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed BUY ECHO 48¢ $41 1h
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY FlyQuest 42¢ $102 1h
Valorant: STREAMER ARENA vs FUSION (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Re BUY FUSION 8¢ $10 1h
Valorant: STREAMER ARENA vs FUSION (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Re BUY FUSION 20¢ $20 2h
Valorant: STREAMER ARENA vs FUSION (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Re BUY FUSION 29¢ $41 2h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 48¢ $102 2h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 54¢ $51 2h
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta BUY Pigeons 8¢ $5 2h
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular BUY BESTIA 21¢ $10 2h
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta BUY Pigeons 18¢ $10 2h
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta BUY Pigeons 24¢ $20 2h
Valorant: X-CAST vs ARETE (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY ARETE 63¢ $51 2h
Valorant: STREAMER ARENA vs FUSION (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Re BUY FUSION 59¢ $30 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P BUY TDK 69¢ $50 3h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Ground Zero 77¢ $50 3h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 66¢ $51 3h
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta BUY Pigeons 56¢ $10 3h
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta BUY Pigeons 57¢ $51 3h
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular BUY BESTIA 57¢ $41 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $515.05 · official $515.05 (match) · 1138 history records