Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:00:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
C2 0xc29f…ed55 sports 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$33 (-2%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate65%11W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$96
7 days+$96
14 days+$50
30 days+$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$50
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +35.7% +22.8% 100% 100% +22.8%
≤30d 17 +14.4% +3.5% 65% 59% -6.6%
≤90d 17 +14.4% +3.5% 65% 59% -6.6%
all 17 +14.4% +3.5% 65% 59% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.5% 59% -6.6%
10% -6.4% 59% -15.6%
15% -15.4% 35% -23.7%
20% -23.7% 24% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$55 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses11 / 6
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage13d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $269 +$96 +36%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $61 −$61 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $127 −$22 -17%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $67 +$15 +23%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $35 +$32 +91%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $18 +$17 +97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $19 −$1 -3%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $14 +$4 +29%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $244 −$230 -94%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $177 +$67 +38%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $140 +$38 +27%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $146 −$7 -5%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $114 +$33 +29%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $57 +$57 +101%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $34 +$22 +64%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $18 −$13 -71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $366 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $269 13h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $61 10d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $61 10d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 72¢ $44 10d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 26¢ $44 10d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 47¢ $83 10d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $83 10d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $67 10d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $67 10d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $35 11d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $35 11d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $18 11d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 70¢ $18 11d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $19 11d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $14 11d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 4¢ $14 11d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $244 11d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $0 11d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $244 11d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $177 12d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $178 12d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $140 12d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 52¢ $139 12d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $146 12d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $146 12d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $114 12d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $114 12d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $57 12d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $57 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records