Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:53:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C2 0xc2a3…a7b0 sports 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$658 (+17%) realized +$569 · open +$89
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate59%30W / 21L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$2,462now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$91
7 days+$176
14 days+$138
30 days+$546
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$115
sports 22% +$394
world 5% +$86
economics 4% $0
tech 1% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +0.8% -8.8% 52% 52% +12.8%
≤30d 51 +9.5% -0.9% 59% 55% +21.9%
≤90d 51 +9.5% -0.9% 59% 55% +21.9%
all 51 +9.5% -0.9% 59% 55% +21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.9% 55% +21.9%
10% -10.4% 53% +10.3%
15% -19.0% 49% -0.4%
20% -27.0% 47% -10.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +52% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$15 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.75 per $1 lost it wins $2.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$2,462
Realized+$569
Unrealized+$89
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses30 / 21
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions15
Markets (closed)51 / 66
History coverage37d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 68¢ $990 $955 −$35 (-4%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 71¢ 72¢ $601 $605 +$4 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 19¢ $128 $165 +$37 (+29%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 88¢ $100 $127 +$27 (+27%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 44¢ 99¢ $50 $111 +$62 (+124%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 55¢ 100¢ $50 $91 +$41 (+83%)
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? No 72¢ 64¢ $101 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 71¢ 77¢ $50 $55 +$4 (+9%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 78¢ 80¢ $51 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? No 51¢ 50¢ $51 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 61¢ 56¢ $51 $46 −$5 (-9%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 59¢ 52¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-13%)
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting? Yes 69¢ 26¢ $50 $19 −$31 (-62%)
Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 1.6% and 2.0%? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 27 $51 +$17 +34%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $101 +$26 +26%
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $50 +$71 +141%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 27 $51 +$64 +127%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $10 +$8 +76%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $101 +$53 +52%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $11 +$8 +81%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $10 +$10 +100%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $51 +$20 +40%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $10 +$12 +118%
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $42 −$42 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $11 +$8 +71%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $10 +$10 +96%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $11 +$7 +68%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$25 +244%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$17 +170%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 +$8 +79%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $10 +$11 +104%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +67%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $101 −$81 -80%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$14 +138%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$11 +108%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $10 +$8 +72%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $11 −$6 -53%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$8 +72%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $6 $0 +2%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$12 +112%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$7 +63%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$9 -90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$10 +96%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 +$6 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 51¢ $51 1h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 69¢ $51 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 100¢ $68 11h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $127 11h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 99¢ $121 11h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $10 13h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $10 16h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $154 18h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $10 21h
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 55¢ $11 21h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 50¢ $10 21h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 68¢ $10 21h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $21 36h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $10 37h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 43¢ $5 38h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 43¢ $2 38h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 43¢ $0 38h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 43¢ $0 38h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 43¢ $2 38h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 78¢ $51 2d
Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 1.6% and 2.0%? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $11 2d
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 2d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $50 3d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $18 3d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 57¢ $11 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $20 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $132 3d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 71¢ $606 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,462.36 · official $2,462.33 (match) · 151 history records