Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:52:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc2a4…a688 other 125 markets active 3d ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$18 (+0%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate10%12W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$4
politics 34% −$4
crypto 8% $0
sports 8% +$24
economics 3% $0
tech 2% $0
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 113 -4.7% -13.8% 4% 3% -10.2%
all 124 +2.4% -7.3% 10% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 5% -9.4%
10% -16.2% 4% -18.0%
15% -24.3% 4% -26.0%
20% -31.7% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×10.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses12 / 112
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)124 / 125
History coverage110d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $53 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $9 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $83 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $111 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $95 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $126 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $9 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $55 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $147 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $77 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $60 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $60 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $143 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $194 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $177 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 18 $73 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $72 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $120 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $182 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 15 $64 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $80 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $68 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $66 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $130 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $72 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $114 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $146 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $71 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 09 $65 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $66 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $155 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? May 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 05 $51 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $63 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $102 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $60 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 02 $51 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $50 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $63 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $126 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $121 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $80 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $128 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 24 $82 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $181 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $58 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $70 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $7 2d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 2d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 3d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $9 3d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $9 3d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 4d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 6d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $13 6d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $13 6d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 6d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 8d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 8d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 9d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 10d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 11d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $9 17d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $9 17d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 22d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 22d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $80 23d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $80 24d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $77 25d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $77 26d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $60 26d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $60 26d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $60 26d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $60 26d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $56 27d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $56 28d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $72 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.00 · official $7.00 (match) · 367 history records