Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:01:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc2a6…37b9 other 323 markets active 0h ago coverage 185d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,169 (-7%) realized −$1,079 · open −$90
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate21%64W / 245L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$3,305now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$397
7 days−$124
14 days−$421
30 days−$1,014
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$1,620
other 37% −$462
sports 7% +$684
world 1% −$95
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-34.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 117 -56.3% -60.5% 18% 16% -12.1%
≤30d 262 -28.9% -35.6% 19% 18% -18.9%
≤90d 270 -29.3% -36.0% 19% 19% -19.4%
all 309 -27.9% -34.8% 21% 20% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.8% 20% -19.8%
10% -41.0% 19% -27.5%
15% -46.7% 18% -34.5%
20% -51.9% 17% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -58% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$27 · ×3.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

185d coverage
Net worth$3,305
Realized−$1,079
Unrealized−$90
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses64 / 245
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions14
Markets (closed)309 / 323
History coverage185d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 309 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $600 $717 +$117 (+20%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $700 $570 −$130 (-19%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $500 $512 +$12 (+2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $250 $412 +$162 (+65%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $250 $257 +$7 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $250 $221 −$29 (-11%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $300 $216 −$84 (-28%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $250 $151 −$99 (-40%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $60 $65 +$5 (+8%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $70 $47 −$23 (-33%)
Will Jack Draper be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $50 $22 −$28 (-57%)
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 213 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 23 $103 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 23 $104 −$65 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 23 $104 +$22 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 23 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 23 $206 −$48 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 23 $105 −$56 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 23 $209 +$311 +149%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $18 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 23 $105 −$13 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 23 $208 +$29 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 23 $104 +$76 +73%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $204 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $206 −$6 -3%
Noni Madueke: 1+ goals Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 23 $206 +$56 +27%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $102 +$201 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +40%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -95%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $242 −$238 -98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Iraq? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 22 $311 −$58 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $308 −$53 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 22 $209 +$77 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $104 +$11 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $31 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $103 +$85 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 21 $102 +$51 +50%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$21 +83%
Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals Jun 21 $24 −$23 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 3 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $125 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $39 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $125 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $102 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $149 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $49 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $105 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $287 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $105 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $18 1h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $91 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $117 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $120 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $104 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $180 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $78 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $102 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,304.77 · official $3,304.77 (match) · 535 history records