Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:13:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc2a7…1d67 other 249 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$73 (-0%) realized −$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%9W / 240L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$186per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$16
14 days−$28
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$40
sports 20% −$14
politics 9% −$10
culture 8% −$8
economics 5% −$3
crypto 5% −$5
world 4% −$3
tech 2% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 80 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 188 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 249 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses9 / 240
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)249 / 249
History coverage127d
Avg bet$186
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 249 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $237 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $119 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 16 $550 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $199 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $357 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $459 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $46 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $213 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $245 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $352 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $174 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $293 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $257 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $354 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $247 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $293 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $219 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $214 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $223 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $435 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 12 $307 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $326 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $97 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $232 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $237 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $256 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $346 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $541 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $234 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $106 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 09 $263 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $376 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $228 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $140 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $158 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $290 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $105 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 08 $281 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $236 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $175 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $383 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $107 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $188 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $44 59m
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $44 3h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $44 6h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $45 8h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $45 9h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $45 11h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $45 12h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $45 14h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $45 15h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $45 17h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $25 17h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $20 19h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $45 20h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $19 20h
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $26 22h
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $26 24h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $14 24h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $10 27h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $3 27h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $45 28h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $45 34h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $46 36h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $46 37h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 39h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $46 46h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $46 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $46 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $46 2d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 2d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1365 history records