Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:43:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C2 0xc2a9…e3cb other 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 448d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$7 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate41%24W / 34L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$2
other 30% +$2
politics 9% $0
crypto 4% $0
tech 4% +$1
economics 2% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 36% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 20 -0.0% -9.5% 35% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 20 -0.0% -9.5% 35% 0% -9.1%
all 58 +1.2% -8.5% 41% 2% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 2% -9.1%
10% -17.2% 2% -17.8%
15% -25.2% 2% -25.7%
20% -32.6% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.49 per $1 lost it wins $3.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

448d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$7
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses24 / 34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage448d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $22 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $21 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $76 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $79 +$2 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $48 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $17 $0 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $43 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $42 $0 +0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $45 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $30 +$2 +7%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $82 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $17 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $47 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $12 $0 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $47 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in Aug 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 15 $1 +$1 +53%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 15 $15 $0 -0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 14 $9 $0 -1%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 12 $17 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will turnout be between 1100000 and 1200000 in the NYC Democratic mayo Jul 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 09 $9 $0 +3%
Will the next government of Suriname be NDP/NPS/ABOP? Jul 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 0.95-0.99ºC in June 2025? Jul 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Jul 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jul 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jul 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $11 $0 -0%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 06 $1 $0 +2%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jul 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $103K on July 4? Jul 02 $14 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jul 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 02 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $45 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 9h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $50 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $50 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $15 22h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 22h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 22h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $22 24h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 33h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 33h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $27 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $22 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $5 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 79¢ $9 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 79¢ $28 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 75¢ $24 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 75¢ $12 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $49 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $3 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $45 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $48 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.00 · official $44.00 (match) · 166 history records