Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:15:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C2 0xc2ad…c163 crypto 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$505 (+36%) realized +$512 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%11W / 27L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$190now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$53
7 days−$57
14 days−$195
30 days+$474
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$467
other 10% −$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -37.5% -43.4% 20% 20% -36.3%
≤30d 25 +45.5% +31.6% 32% 32% +37.0%
≤90d 38 +9.5% -0.9% 29% 29% +26.0%
all 38 +9.5% -0.9% 29% 29% +26.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.9% 29% +26.0%
10% -10.4% 26% +13.9%
15% -19.0% 24% +2.9%
20% -27.0% 24% -7.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$22 · ×4.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$190
Realized+$512
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses11 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage39d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $197 $190 −$7 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Jun 21 $20 −$19 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 21 $63 −$35 -55%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 18 $43 +$9 +22%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -36%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 17 $64 −$12 -18%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? Jun 14 $37 −$35 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 18? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $15 −$14 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 8-14? Jun 12 $16 −$14 -85%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 14? Jun 11 $61 −$56 -91%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $181 −$177 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 05 $83 +$98 +118%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 1-7? Jun 04 $18 +$153 +866%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 04 $82 +$271 +332%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $165 +$212 +129%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 1-7? Jun 04 $20 +$145 +717%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 1-7? Jun 02 $16 +$65 +399%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 1? May 30 $5 −$4 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 30 $5 −$4 -92%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 30 $112 −$108 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 28 $36 +$18 +50%
Will United Kingdom come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $11 +$10 +91%
Will Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $25 −$24 -97%
Will Belgium be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $6 −$6 -95%
Will Italy win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $8 −$8 -95%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $8 +$8 +105%
Will Croatia win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $7 −$7 -95%
Will Italy come in 3rd place at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $6 −$6 -96%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $4 −$4 -95%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $8 −$8 -95%
Will Romania be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 15 $18 +$5 +28%
Will Switzerland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 14 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Croatia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 19¢ $205 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY No 5¢ $20 44h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $20 44h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $53 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 14¢ $53 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $43 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $41 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $64 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17? BUY No 1¢ $3 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 13? BUY No 0¢ $1 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 8-14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 8-14? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 14? SELL No 0¢ $1 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 13? BUY No 3¢ $13 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $189.94 · official $189.94 (match) · 104 history records