Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:17:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc2af…63b4 crypto 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate68%23W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day16.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -4.5% -13.6% 68% 47% -12.6%
≤30d 34 -4.5% -13.6% 68% 47% -12.6%
≤90d 34 -4.5% -13.6% 68% 47% -12.6%
all 34 -4.5% -13.6% 68% 47% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 47% -12.6%
10% -21.9% 41% -21.0%
15% -29.4% 26% -28.6%
20% -36.3% 21% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$12 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses23 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage2d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day16.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 28 $17 +$13 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 28 $16 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 28 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 28 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 28 $12 +$14 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 28 $30 +$11 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 27 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 27 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 26 $9 +$15 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $23 +$6 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 26 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 26 $18 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 26 $21 +$7 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 26 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 26 $28 −$27 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 26 $16 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $9 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 26 $20 +$13 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 26 $16 +$10 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 26 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 26 $11 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 26 $7 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 26 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 26 $6 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 26 $12 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$6 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $26 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $17 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $12 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $9 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $30 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $14 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $9 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $9 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $23 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $9 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $18 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $21 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $28 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $16 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $9 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $9 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $20 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $21 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $9 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $16 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 59 history records