Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:56:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

C2 0xc2b1…0d02 sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$221 (+6%) realized −$1,269 · open +$1,490

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip

Net edge+9%after slip

Net WR75%break-even

Win rate75%3W / 1L

Drawdown16%max

Avg bet$791per market

Trades / day12.0pace

Fees−$67est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$2,961now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +75%

net ROI/market (all)+23.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+36.3%	+23.4%	75%	75%	+25.2%
≤30d	4	+36.3%	+23.4%	75%	75%	+25.2%
≤90d	4	+36.3%	+23.4%	75%	75%	+25.2%
all	4	+36.3%	+23.4%	75%	75%	+25.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover12.0 tr/day

realistic slip~11%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+23.4%	75%	+25.2%
10% ← realistic here	+11.5%	75%	+13.2%
15%	+0.8%	75%	+2.3%
20%	-9.1%	25%	-7.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 40% · top 2 77% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +38% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +36% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$364 vs −$150 · ×2.43 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×7.28 per $1 lost it wins $7.28

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$2,961

Realized−$1,269

Unrealized+$1,490

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses3 / 1

Est. fees paid−$67

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$791

Trades / day12.0

Drawdown16%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream	Atlanta Dream	44¢	90¢	$1,472	$2,961	+$1,490 (+101%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Luca Van Assche	Jun 20	$153	+$256	+167%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Giles Hussey	Jun 20	$153	−$150	-98%
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell	Jun 20	$996	+$400	+40%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz	Jun 20	$1,155	+$437	+38%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream	BUY Atlanta Dream	44¢	$1,496	31m
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Luca Van Assche	SELL Luca Van Assche	100¢	$409	34m
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Luca Van Assche	BUY Luca Van Assche	36¢	$51	1h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Luca Van Assche	BUY Luca Van Assche	37¢	$102	1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Giles Hussey	BUY James Duckworth	44¢	$153	2h
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell	SELL Christopher OConnell	99¢	$1,396	2h
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell	BUY Christopher OConnell	70¢	$996	2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz	SELL Taylor Fritz	100¢	$997	2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz	BUY Taylor Fritz	53¢	$1	3h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz	BUY Taylor Fritz	59¢	$596	3h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz	SELL Alexander Zverev	42¢	$595	3h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz	BUY Alexander Zverev	38¢	$558	3h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,961.32 · official $2,961.32 (match) · 12 history records