Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:09:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc2b3…d84c sports 130 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$91 (-4%) realized −$91 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate53%69W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days−$37
14 days−$117
30 days−$161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$64
crypto 21% −$31
other 10% −$68
world 3% +$2
politics 2% −$5
tech 1% +$5
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -16.5% -24.5% 25% 0% -28.7%
≤30d 130 -7.7% -16.5% 53% 45% -16.4%
≤90d 130 -7.7% -16.5% 53% 45% -16.4%
all 130 -7.7% -16.5% 53% 45% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 45% -16.4%
10% -24.4% 38% -24.4%
15% -31.7% 28% -31.7%
20% -38.4% 21% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$10 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$91
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses69 / 61
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)130 / 130
History coverage28d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 130 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 25 $20 −$3 -14%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Jun 25 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 25 $41 −$4 -10%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 25 $15 −$1 -5%
Trump out as President before GTA VI? Jun 25 $10 −$1 -7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $20 +$2 +8%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $26 +$1 +5%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $15 +$13 +84%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +53%
1H Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 +$3 +31%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +5%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $46 −$45 -98%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $15 +$4 +29%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $31 −$2 -6%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +102%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $10 +$12 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$3 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $11 $0 -1%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $25 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 12 $31 −$10 -31%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$10 -65%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 12 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $16 −$15 -97%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $25 +$8 +30%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Rainbow Six Siege: Five Fears vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Ameri Jun 11 $10 +$8 +78%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 +$6 +40%
Rainbow Six Siege: Spacestation Gaming vs For Fun Esports (BO1) - Nort Jun 11 $15 +$6 +39%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $25 +$9 +34%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 11 $15 +$10 +63%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $20 +$1 +5%
Perugia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $10 +$9 +86%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $10 −$4 -44%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $15 +$3 +20%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $15 +$17 +112%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $15 +$4 +26%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $15 +$5 +35%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Storm Hunter vs Aliaksandra Sasnovi Jun 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 07 $26 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 48¢ $18 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL No 50¢ $9 1h
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 61¢ $37 1h
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? SELL Anthropic 76¢ $15 1h
Trump out as President before GTA VI? SELL No 50¢ $10 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $22 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $27 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 10d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 10d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 10d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 53¢ $15 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $15 11d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $31 12d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 12d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $20 12d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 56¢ $29 12d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $31 12d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $31 12d
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic BUY Donna Vekic 76¢ $15 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $15 12d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $21 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $10 12d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $11 12d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $20 12d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 45¢ $10 12d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 12d
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? BUY Anthropic 77¢ $15 12d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 20¢ $5 13d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $16 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 338 history records