Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:13:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C2 0xc2b4…74dc sports 293 markets active 2h ago coverage 212d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,005 (+8%) realized +$2,988 · open +$17
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate71%204W / 84L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$115est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1,117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$78
7 days−$2,387
14 days−$2,313
30 days−$1,363
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$1,106
other 42% +$3,081
politics 5% +$714
crypto 5% +$343
world 3% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -19.1% -26.8% 56% 50% -37.4%
≤30d 21 -14.2% -22.4% 57% 52% -19.0%
≤90d 30 +2.6% -7.1% 67% 63% -7.4%
all 288 +5.1% -4.9% 71% 48% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 48% -2.2%
10% -14.0% 30% -11.5%
15% -22.3% 17% -20.1%
20% -29.9% 12% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +21% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$77 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

212d coverage
Net worth$1,117
Realized+$2,988
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses204 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$115
Open positions5
Markets (closed)288 / 293
History coverage212d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 288 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $301 $293 −$8 (-3%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $249 $250 +$2 (+1%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 0.5 Over 82¢ 80¢ $246 $238 −$7 (-3%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 79¢ 96¢ $142 $172 +$30 (+21%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5 Over 81¢ 81¢ $162 $163 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $130 −$130 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $286 +$114 +40%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $71 +$94 +134%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $241 +$59 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,410 +$170 +12%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $370 +$50 +14%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $151 +$49 +32%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Jun 22 $277 −$7 -3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $69 −$69 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $219 −$219 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 22 $385 −$385 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 22 $819 −$819 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 22 $1,514 −$1,514 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $317 +$23 +7%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $164 +$36 +22%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,339 +$161 +12%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $280 +$140 +50%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,766 +$234 +13%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $922 −$299 -32%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5 May 31 $458 −$458 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1,831 +$1,408 +77%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 May 06 $840 +$660 +79%
Getafe CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 1.5 Apr 25 $150 +$50 +33%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 Apr 25 $275 +$80 +29%
FC Barcelona vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 4.5 Apr 23 $128 +$72 +56%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $1,135 −$29 -3%
FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 4.5 Apr 14 $142 +$58 +41%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 14 $1,238 +$662 +54%
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5 Apr 08 $136 +$64 +47%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 4.5 Apr 05 $390 +$159 +41%
Real Madrid CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 4.5 Mar 23 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $20 +$20 +104%
FC Barcelona vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 4.5 Mar 22 $13 +$7 +54%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $97 +$23 +24%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $246 +$104 +42%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $1,240 +$760 +61%
Arsenal FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5 Mar 18 $40 +$10 +27%
FC Barcelona vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 4.5 Mar 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02? Mar 18 $185 −$185 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. Getafe CF: O/U 1.5 Mar 18 $275 −$275 -100%
Manchester United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5 Mar 16 $14 +$3 +22%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-15? Mar 16 $109 +$31 +28%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-14? Mar 15 $438 +$162 +37%
Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 4.5 Mar 14 $35 +$5 +15%
Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5 Mar 12 $48 +$12 +25%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-10? Mar 11 $1,172 +$618 +53%
Will Wrexham AFC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 08 $25 +$5 +19%
Athletic Club vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 4.5 Mar 08 $228 +$72 +32%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5 Mar 07 $31 +$9 +30%
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 4.5 Mar 05 $8 +$2 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 82¢ $247 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $305 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 9h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 79¢ $137 9h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $130 32h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $71 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 80¢ $241 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 90¢ $900 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 88¢ $370 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $151 4d
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $1 4d
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $10 4d
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $152 4d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 90¢ $269 4d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 92¢ $277 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $286 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $250 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $69 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 93¢ $317 5d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $117 6d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $5 6d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $10 6d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $32 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,339 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 88¢ $507 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 88¢ $4 9d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $1,766 10d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $280 10d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 63¢ $623 11d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $922 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,117.31 · official $1,117.33 (match) · 1077 history records