Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:58:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc2b4…9549 other 227 markets active 1h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$65 (-0%) realized −$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%11W / 216L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$18
14 days−$28
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$42
sports 21% −$13
politics 9% −$7
culture 6% −$6
economics 5% −$4
world 4% −$2
crypto 3% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 69 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 165 -0.8% -10.2% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 227 -0.6% -10.0% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses11 / 216
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)227 / 227
History coverage129d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 227 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $325 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $221 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $223 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $371 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $204 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $397 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $421 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $372 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $202 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $337 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $112 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $184 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $248 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $252 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $350 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $257 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $341 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $681 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $250 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $786 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $363 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $197 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $212 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $174 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $380 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $412 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $354 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $454 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $608 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $312 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $452 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $170 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $147 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $214 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $132 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 09 $153 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 08 $160 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $475 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $593 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $578 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $747 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $850 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $436 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $275 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $229 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $62 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 03 $241 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $245 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $220 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 1h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 2h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 10h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 12h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $54 13h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 14h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 16h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 18h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 19h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 21h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 22h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 23h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 26h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 28h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 29h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 31h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 33h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 35h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $55 39h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $55 41h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $55 41h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $55 42h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 45h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 47h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1318 history records