Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:19:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc2b5…a1f6 other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$334 (-11%) realized −$334 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate58%11W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$329
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$717
sports 38% +$379
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 +56.5% +41.6% 86% 57% +20.3%
≤90d 17 -0.8% -10.3% 65% 35% -19.0%
all 19 -11.2% -19.7% 58% 32% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 32% -19.7%
10% -27.4% 32% -27.4%
15% -34.4% 21% -34.4%
20% -40.8% 5% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -73% → late +44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$106 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized−$334
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses11 / 8
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage105d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $134 $134 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $20 +$75 +376%
Will Wolves finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier League May 24 $642 +$237 +37%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? May 24 $233 +$74 +32%
Will Ole Gunnar Solskjær be appointed as manager of Manchester United? May 22 $10 $0 +2%
Will Kieran McKenna be appointed as manager of Manchester United? May 22 $10 $0 +3%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 21 $75 −$59 -79%
English Premier League: Bruno Fernandes breaks assists record? May 18 $9 +$2 +24%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 18 $192 +$78 +41%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? May 18 $612 +$17 +3%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Serie A league? May 18 $319 +$12 +4%
Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standing May 18 $82 +$1 +2%
Will Chelsea finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? May 18 $19 +$8 +42%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 12 $148 −$145 -98%
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 06 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Freiburg win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 06 $107 −$104 -98%
Will Nott'm Forest win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 06 $245 −$244 -100%
Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? May 06 $251 −$248 -99%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $137 1h
English Premier League: Bruno Fernandes breaks assists record? SELL Yes 46¢ $10 29d
English Premier League: Bruno Fernandes breaks assists record? SELL Yes 46¢ $1 29d
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? BUY No 45¢ $75 30d
Will Wolves finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier League BUY Yes 75¢ $85 35d
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? BUY No 35¢ $5 35d
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? BUY No 35¢ $143 35d
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? BUY Yes 19¢ $17 41d
Will Freiburg win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? BUY Yes 16¢ $23 41d
Will Nott'm Forest win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? BUY Yes 31¢ $36 41d
Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? BUY Yes 67¢ $251 41d
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 44d
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 44d
Will Wolves finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier League BUY Yes 70¢ $130 46d
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? BUY No 61¢ $7 46d
Will Wolves finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier League BUY Yes 70¢ $2 46d
Will Wolves finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier League BUY Yes 71¢ $44 47d
Will Wolves finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier League BUY Yes 71¢ $359 47d
Will Freiburg win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? BUY Yes 18¢ $81 47d
Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standing BUY No 16¢ $10 56d
Will Nott'm Forest win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? BUY Yes 20¢ $66 59d
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 59d
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Serie A league? BUY Yes 98¢ $136 61d
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Serie A league? BUY Yes 98¢ $57 61d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? BUY Yes 97¢ $151 61d
Will Freiburg win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 61d
Will Nott'm Forest win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? BUY Yes 20¢ $143 61d
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? BUY No 50¢ $70 61d
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? BUY Yes 62¢ $57 61d
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? BUY Yes 62¢ $16 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.50 · official $133.50 (match) · 83 history records