Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:48:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C2 0xc2b9…d5ff other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$128 (+11%) realized +$81 · open +$47
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$177now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$82
14 days+$103
30 days+$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 60% −$27
other 35% +$127
sports 3% +$12
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +46.3% +32.4% 50% 50% +23.9%
≤30d 13 +11.8% +1.1% 38% 38% -3.6%
≤90d 13 +11.8% +1.1% 38% 38% -3.6%
all 13 +11.8% +1.1% 38% 38% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.1% 38% -3.6%
10% -8.6% 38% -12.8%
15% -17.4% 31% -21.2%
20% -25.5% 23% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$17 · ×2.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$177
Realized+$81
Unrealized+$47
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 17
History coverage22d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 63¢ 84¢ $100 $134 +$34 (+34%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 42¢ $30 $42 +$12 (+42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$3 -6%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$41 +134%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$28 +93%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$51 +165%
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $51 −$4 -9%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$21 +42%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $202 +$61 +30%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $52 −$31 -60%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $155 −$44 -28%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 29 $202 −$10 -5%
Will voter turnout be between 50% and 55% in the 2026 Seoul mayoral el May 28 $103 −$4 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 9h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 47¢ $32 22h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 32h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? AN BUY 26¢ $20 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 49¢ $0 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 49¢ $15 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 25¢ $31 6d
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 47¢ $46 6d
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 7d
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 63¢ $101 7d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? SELL Yes $21 15d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes $9 15d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 31¢ $7 19d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 19d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 28¢ $51 20d
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? BUY Yes 76¢ $202 20d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 14¢ $52 20d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 71¢ $192 20d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 24¢ $102 21d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 73¢ $202 21d
Will voter turnout be between 50% and 55% in the 2026 Seoul mayoral el SELL Yes 27¢ $99 21d
Will voter turnout be between 50% and 55% in the 2026 Seoul mayoral el BUY Yes 27¢ $103 21d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 22¢ $103 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $176.63 · official $176.63 (match) · 33 history records