Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:47:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C2 0xc2ba…9040 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 29d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$74 (-9%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 29d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$114
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +11.2% +0.6% 100% 67% +1.5%
≤30d 5 -18.4% -26.2% 60% 40% -22.5%
≤90d 5 -18.4% -26.2% 60% 40% -22.5%
all 5 -18.4% -26.2% 60% 40% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.2% 40% -22.5%
10% -33.2% 0% -29.9%
15% -39.7% 0% -36.7%
20% -45.6% 0% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$87 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage29d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $152 $0 +0%
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $145 +$18 +12%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $197 +$42 +21%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $102 −$79 -77%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $196 −$95 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 48¢ $153 1h
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 49¢ $163 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $239 1h
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 42¢ $145 19d
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $152 19d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $197 27d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 13¢ $23 28d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 55¢ $102 28d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 21¢ $101 28d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $196 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 10 history records