Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:30:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C2 0xc2c0…466b other 137 markets active 1h ago coverage 219d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$264 (-1%) realized −$503 · open +$239
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate53%62W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$77est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$5,093now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$224
7 days−$277
14 days−$265
30 days−$424
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$738
sports 31% +$338
politics 5% −$20
world 2% +$33
culture 2% +$18
crypto 1% +$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -4.5% -13.6% 75% 38% -27.2%
≤30d 22 -7.8% -16.6% 68% 23% -19.1%
≤90d 84 -5.8% -14.8% 58% 27% -11.0%
all 116 -6.3% -15.2% 53% 28% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 28% -13.3%
10% -23.3% 15% -21.6%
15% -30.8% 8% -29.1%
20% -37.5% 5% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$36 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

219d coverage
Net worth$5,093
Realized−$503
Unrealized+$239
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses62 / 54
Est. fees paid−$77
Open positions21
Markets (closed)116 / 137
History coverage219d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 20¢ $425 $593 +$168 (+40%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $508 $427 −$81 (-16%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $335 $376 +$42 (+13%)
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 77¢ 75¢ $384 $375 −$9 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $258 $353 +$95 (+37%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 84¢ $273 $336 +$63 (+23%)
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 76¢ $316 $302 −$14 (-4%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 90¢ $243 $269 +$25 (+10%)
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 88¢ 82¢ $223 $208 −$15 (-7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $211 $200 −$12 (-6%)
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 84¢ 99¢ $169 $199 +$30 (+18%)
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 92¢ 99¢ $184 $198 +$15 (+8%)
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 97¢ $172 $195 +$23 (+13%)
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 94¢ $155 $190 +$35 (+23%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 95¢ $185 $189 +$5 (+3%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 60¢ 57¢ $197 $188 −$9 (-4%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $259 $179 −$81 (-31%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $156 $161 +$5 (+3%)
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $114 $112 −$2 (-2%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $52 $26 −$26 (-50%)
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $37 $20 −$18 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $152 +$20 +13%
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $180 +$10 +6%
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 21 $279 +$1 +0%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $286 −$286 -100%
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $138 +$12 +8%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $181 +$20 +11%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 17 $151 −$103 -69%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $53 +$50 +94%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 14 $143 +$12 +8%
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 20 Jun 05 $596 −$8 -1%
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $36 −$4 -11%
Will Richarlison be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad Jun 02 $418 +$37 +9%
Will Éder Militão be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squa Jun 02 $15 $0 +1%
Will Estêvão be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad lis Jun 02 $72 −$56 -78%
Will CDP Junior FC win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $86 +$5 +6%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 29 $66 +$18 +27%
Will João Pedro be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad May 29 $219 −$204 -93%
Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $450 +$33 +7%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $26 −$9 -33%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $359 +$21 +6%
Will CA Boston River win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $93 +$6 +7%
Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $9 +$1 +11%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $91 +$17 +18%
Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list May 19 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Luiz Henrique be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squ May 19 $10 $0 +5%
Will Wesley be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list May 19 $32 +$2 +5%
Will Danilo Luiz da Silva be included in Brazil's official 2026 World May 19 $631 +$44 +7%
Will Bruno Guimarães be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup s May 19 $103 +$7 +7%
Will Douglas Santos be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup sq May 19 $16 +$1 +7%
Will Bremer be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list May 19 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Gabriel Martinelli be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cu May 19 $48 +$1 +2%
Will Ederson be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad lis May 19 $83 +$13 +16%
Will Danilo Barbosa da Silva be included in Brazil's official 2026 Wor May 18 $168 −$155 -92%
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 May 18 $170 −$21 -12%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $80 +$21 +26%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 16 $120 +$42 +35%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves advance to the 2026 NBA Finals? May 13 $20 −$19 -96%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 12 $131 +$20 +15%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 12 $176 +$33 +19%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $23 +$2 +9%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 12 $174 +$40 +23%
Will Kylian Mbappe leave Real Madrid before August 31? May 11 $44 −$1 -3%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $77 +$23 +29%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 10 $91 +$1 +1%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $28 +$1 +3%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $360 −$5 -2%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $5 $0 -9%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $5 $0 -9%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 04 $341 +$83 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 76¢ $152 1h
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 62¢ $115 1h
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 60¢ $199 1h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 77¢ $232 1h
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $172 1h
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $190 1h
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 71¢ $280 1h
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 87¢ $7 1h
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 87¢ $9 1h
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 88¢ $18 1h
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 89¢ $9 1h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 77¢ $155 1h
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 90¢ $36 1h
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 88¢ $145 1h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 24¢ $48 1h
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 92¢ $138 3d
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C SELL No 12¢ $47 3d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $22 4d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $55 4d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 4d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 4d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 4d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 4d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 4d
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 55¢ $113 7d
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY No 15¢ $32 7d
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 78¢ $155 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,093.47 · official $5,093.80 (match) · 666 history records