Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:24:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C2 0xc2c4…0734 sports 412 markets active 0h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,066 (+2%) realized +$5,069 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%171W / 239L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$574per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$1,651est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$449
7 days+$952
14 days+$879
30 days+$5,232
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$1,611
world 29% +$2,780
other 10% −$10,260
finance 4% +$5,550
politics 2% +$731
crypto 1% +$3,520
weather 0% −$96
tech 0% −$11
economics 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +12.9% +2.1% 55% 55% +1.6%
≤30d 220 +1.7% -8.0% 47% 46% +3.3%
≤90d 380 -9.0% -17.7% 43% 41% -9.9%
all 410 -11.3% -19.8% 42% 39% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 39% -7.6%
10% -27.5% 38% -16.4%
15% -34.5% 35% -24.5%
20% -40.9% 30% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -25% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$383 vs −$259 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$197
Realized+$5,069
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses171 / 239
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$1,651
Open positions2
Markets (closed)410 / 412
History coverage476d
Avg bet$574
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 410 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 32¢ 63¢ $100 $197 +$97 (+97%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 41¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 144 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 20 $1,459 +$554 +38%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 20 $215 +$184 +86%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $152 +$142 +93%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $305 −$300 -98%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $303 −$303 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $258 +$301 +117%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $102 +$138 +136%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $259 +$333 +128%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 19 $254 −$250 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $254 −$250 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $248 +$252 +102%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $62 −$60 -97%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $377 +$304 +80%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $249 +$198 +79%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $142 −$140 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $122 +$93 +76%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 15 $404 +$175 +43%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $46 −$45 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $51 +$194 +379%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $12 −$12 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$71 +70%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$91 +90%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$96 +94%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $46 +$43 +92%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $150 −$150 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $50 −$49 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $102 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $100 +$100 +100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $97 +$102 +105%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $100 +$100 +100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $86 +$54 +62%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $20 +$9 +44%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $215 +$216 +101%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $292 −$287 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $567 −$560 -99%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $408 +$648 +159%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $132 +$81 +62%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) Jun 13 $71 +$124 +174%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $404 +$184 +46%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 13 $654 −$650 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $213 −$210 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $153 −$152 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $51 +$30 +59%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $102 −$3 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 32¢ $102 15m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 41¢ $102 1h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) SELL Team Falcons 92¢ $5 2h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) SELL Team Falcons 92¢ $1,297 2h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) SELL Team Falcons 92¢ $9 2h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) SELL Team Falcons 92¢ $300 2h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) SELL Team Falcons 92¢ $14 2h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) SELL Team Falcons 92¢ $100 2h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) SELL Team Falcons 92¢ $288 2h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $1,459 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 58¢ $728 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 59¢ $759 4h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) SELL FURIA 58¢ $80 5h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Over 100¢ $294 5h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) SELL FURIA 61¢ $319 5h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 51¢ $152 6h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY FURIA 32¢ $9 14h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY FURIA 32¢ $38 14h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY FURIA 32¢ $14 14h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY FURIA 32¢ $3 14h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY FURIA 32¢ $10 15h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY FURIA 32¢ $2 15h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY FURIA 32¢ $96 15h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY FURIA 32¢ $42 15h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $305 15h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $295 16h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 16h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 16h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 50¢ $100 22h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $559 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.00 · official $182.94 · 2770 history records