Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:47:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C2 0xc2c5…4502 crypto 1536 markets active 0h ago coverage 199d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 199d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$92 (-0%) realized +$26 · open −$118
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate91%1450W / 139L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$822now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,309
7 days−$1,334
14 days−$1,346
30 days−$1,346
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% +$75
world 6% +$60
other 5% −$360
sports 3% +$170
politics 0% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 115 -49.1% -53.9% 19% 16% -50.3%
≤30d 123 -46.6% -51.7% 22% 18% -47.1%
≤90d 128 -46.2% -51.3% 23% 18% -42.5%
all 1589 -4.1% -13.2% 91% 2% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 2% -13.4%
10% -21.5% 2% -21.7%
15% -29.1% 1% -29.2%
20% -36.1% 1% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$23 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

199d coverage
Net worth$822
Realized+$26
Unrealized−$118
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses1450 / 139
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions22
Markets (closed)1589 / 1536
History coverage199d ⚠
Avg bet$23
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 1589 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 76¢ 60¢ $303 $242 −$61 (-20%)
GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 95¢ 92¢ $95 $92 −$3 (-3%)
Extended FDV above $3B one day after launch? No 95¢ 97¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 32¢ $99 $48 −$51 (-52%)
Ostium FDV above $700M one day after launch? No 92¢ 94¢ $46 $47 +$1 (+3%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 85¢ 94¢ $42 $47 +$4 (+10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 86¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 87¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Spread: France (-2.5) France 57¢ 56¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No 53¢ 46¢ $26 $23 −$3 (-12%)
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? Yes 55¢ 54¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-2%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Decibel FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 92¢ 80¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 136 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 3, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 23, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 26, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 29, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 23, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 29, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 18, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 3, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 21, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 20, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 4, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 22 $19 −$19 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 3, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 29, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 25, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 1, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 27, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 27, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 19, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $199 16m
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 52m
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 1h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 1h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 1h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 1h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 1h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 1h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 55¢ $14 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 1h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $49 1h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 1h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $14 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $29 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $30 11h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 36h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 36h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 36h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 36h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 36h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 34¢ $21 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $33 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.