Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:31:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc2d0…db40 sports 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$133 (-60%) realized −$147 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -76% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -80% what you keep after slip
Net edge-80%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate8%1W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$71
other 16% −$30
crypto 7% −$16
world 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-78.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -76.4% -78.7% 8% 8% -82.5%
≤30d 12 -76.4% -78.7% 8% 8% -82.5%
≤90d 12 -76.4% -78.7% 8% 8% -82.5%
all 12 -76.4% -78.7% 8% 8% -82.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -78.7% 8% -82.5%
10% -80.7% 8% -84.1%
15% -82.6% 8% -85.7%
20% -84.3% 8% -87.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -81% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -76% · $-wt -81% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -53% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$13 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$147
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses1 / 11
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage2d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Over 53¢ 90¢ $25 $42 +$17 (+69%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Yes 30¢ 26¢ $27 $24 −$3 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $15 +$13 +86%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4 $0 -3%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $29 −$28 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 30¢ $28 8m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $25 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $20 17h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 22h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 22h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $25 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 45h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $28 46h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $15 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 72¢ $4 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $4 2d
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 0¢ $3 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $29 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.07 · official $66.97 (match) · 20 history records