Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:34:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C2 0xc2d1…2ffe sports 19 markets active 6d ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$20 (+17%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate74%14W / 5L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$22
world 25% +$2
other 14% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +4.6% -5.4% 100% 0% -5.4%
≤30d 4 +6.2% -3.9% 100% 0% -4.0%
≤90d 19 +6.9% -3.3% 74% 42% +5.1%
all 19 +6.9% -3.3% 74% 42% +5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 42% +5.1%
10% -12.5% 26% -5.0%
15% -21.0% 26% -14.1%
20% -28.7% 26% -22.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses14 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage88d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $6 $0 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $6 $0 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $5 $0 +5%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? May 18 $5 $0 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $6 $0 +5%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $6 +$1 +16%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-01? May 02 $5 +$1 +12%
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026? May 01 $6 $0 +6%
Will Portsmouth FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Flames vs. Kraken Apr 18 $5 +$4 +75%
Blue Jackets vs. Canadiens Apr 18 $5 +$7 +138%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw? Apr 11 $5 +$1 +18%
Bucks vs. Hawks Mar 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Mar 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Hawks vs. Celtics Mar 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Jazz vs. Kings Mar 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Oilers vs. Utah Mar 27 $10 +$13 +127%
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Saint Mary's Gaels Mar 27 $11 +$16 +143%
Heat vs. Hornets Mar 19 $8 +$6 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY No 96¢ $6 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 93¢ $6 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $5 21d
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? BUY No 93¢ $5 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $6 36d
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY No 86¢ $6 43d
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-01? BUY No 89¢ $5 47d
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $6 55d
Will Portsmouth FC win on 2026-04-18? BUY No 59¢ $6 59d
Blue Jackets vs. Canadiens BUY Blue Jackets 42¢ $5 66d
Flames vs. Kraken BUY Kraken 57¢ $5 66d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw? BUY No 85¢ $5 74d
Hawks vs. Celtics BUY Hawks 35¢ $2 81d
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes BUY Nebraska Cornhuskers 54¢ $8 83d
Oilers vs. Utah BUY Oilers 44¢ $10 84d
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Saint Mary's Gaels BUY Texas A&M Aggies 41¢ $11 89d
Heat vs. Hornets BUY Hornets 60¢ $8 91d
Jazz vs. Kings BUY Jazz 47¢ $7 93d
Bucks vs. Hawks BUY Bucks 27¢ $8 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records