Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:07:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C2 0xc2d2…aab6 sports 61 markets active 13h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$885 (+18%) realized +$870 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate75%45W / 15L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$675now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$71
7 days+$821
14 days+$933
30 days+$933
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$1,143
politics 21% +$263
sports 9% −$192
crypto 6% −$270
world 2% −$94
tech 1% +$2
finance 0% +$1
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -14.0% -22.2% 44% 44% +16.9%
≤30d 10 -9.7% -18.3% 50% 50% +17.0%
≤90d 13 -4.6% -13.6% 62% 54% +16.9%
all 60 -4.7% -13.7% 75% 37% +8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 37% +8.6%
10% -22.0% 13% -1.8%
15% -29.5% 5% -11.3%
20% -36.4% 5% -20.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$51 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.1 per $1 lost it wins $2.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$675
Realized+$870
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses45 / 15
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage130d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 68¢ $660 $675 +$15 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $202 +$121 +60%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 −$79 -77%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 −$82 -80%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $303 −$270 -89%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$32 -32%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $679 +$371 +55%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $671 +$756 +113%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 13 $547 +$136 +25%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 02 $376 +$112 +30%
Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 04 $4 $0 +11%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025–2026 NBA Central Division? Apr 04 $5 $0 +10%
Will John Carter be the Republican nominee for TX-31? Apr 04 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31? Feb 22 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28? Feb 22 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Feb 21 $46 −$18 -39%
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 20 $99 +$29 +30%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 19 $255 +$44 +17%
Will the United States win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Win Feb 15 $174 −$69 -40%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in January? Feb 13 $4 $0 +11%
Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.7% in January? Feb 13 $5 $0 +8%
Will Bangladesh Nationalist Party win the most seats in the Bangladesh Feb 13 $50 +$12 +25%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs AVULUS (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Playoff Feb 11 $4 +$2 +33%
Houston Cougars vs. Utah Utes Feb 11 $5 $0 +6%
Women's Group B - Japan vs. Sweden Feb 10 $10 +$1 +15%
LoL: CITA Kaizen vs Priority (BO5) - Hitpoint Masters Playoffs Feb 10 $9 −$7 -70%
Will Coca-Cola (KO) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 10 $9 +$1 +8%
Counter-Strike: BIG EQUIPA vs los kogutos (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #1 Feb 10 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the People’s Party (PPLE) win fewer than 120 seats in the 2026 Th Feb 10 $39 $0 -0%
East Texas A&M Lions vs. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks Feb 10 $5 $0 +8%
Houston Christian Huskies vs. McNeese State Cowboys Feb 10 $5 $0 +6%
Xavier Musketeers vs. St. John's Red Storm Feb 10 $5 $0 +10%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 on February 9? Feb 09 $6 +$1 +18%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 on February 9? Feb 09 $10 $0 +5%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 on February 9? Feb 09 $10 $0 +4%
Dota 2: NAVI Junior vs strongboys (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Feb 09 $4 $0 +11%
Will Pheu Thai Party (PT) finish in third place by number of seats in Feb 09 $4 +$1 +12%
Will Coca Cola run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Feb 09 $5 $0 +4%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $6 +$1 +12%
Will NUEVAYOL be played at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 09 $5 $0 +10%
Will Tití Me Preguntó be played at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 09 $5 $0 +8%
Will Sabrina Carpenter perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $5 $0 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026 Feb 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Dua Lipa perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 15°F or below on Febr Feb 09 $5 $0 +5%
Will xAI or X run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Feb 09 $5 −$1 -17%
Utah Utes vs. Kansas Jayhawks Feb 07 $5 $0 +4%
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs vs. Presbyterian Blue Hose Feb 07 $5 $0 +8%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs Underground ESC (BO3) - Dfrag Ope Feb 07 $5 $0 +10%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 2 above $180? Feb 07 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $667 12h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $324 13h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 14h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $23 14h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $20 16h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 18h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 18h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 18h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $102 18h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 7¢ $33 19h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $70 19h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $201 19h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 22h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 22h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $679 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,427 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $671 2d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $683 2d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $547 12d
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31? BUY No 29¢ $58 112d
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28? BUY No 79¢ $14 113d
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28? BUY No 79¢ $0 113d
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28? BUY No 79¢ $8 113d
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28? BUY No 79¢ $7 113d
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28? BUY No 79¢ $7 113d
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? BUY Yes 83¢ $104 113d
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 113d
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? BUY Yes 83¢ $4 113d
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? BUY Yes 83¢ $37 113d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $28 114d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $675.00 · official $675.00 (match) · 158 history records