Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:36:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C2
0xc2d2…38cc
sports · 507 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$96 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$54 · open −$35
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$26
Realized−$54
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses198 / 295
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions14
Markets (closed)493 / 507
History coverage934d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 14 History 493 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days−$74
14 days−$150
30 days−$104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 48¢ 49¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Under 59¢ 57¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31? No 40¢ 42¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Under 39¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 59¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Athletics win the 2026 American League Championship Series? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? No 18¢ 1¢ $15 $1 −$14 (-94%)
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 35¢ 4¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-88%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$14 (-98%)
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-90%)
Kings vs. Panthers Kings 44¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Sinners 44¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Nets vs. 76ers 76ers 79¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Suns vs. 76ers 76ers 52¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Frances Tiafoe 40¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 51¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Pelicans vs. Grizzlies Grizzlies 64¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Mavericks Mavericks 41¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Utah vs. Panthers Panthers 60¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Juan Manuel Cerundolo 32¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Under 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $7 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $55 −$2 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $39 −$12 -32%
Will Nashville SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 +26%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +9%
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jun 12 $14 −$1 -4%
Will Oro launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $14 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? Jun 12 $12 $0 -2%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? Jun 12 $15 −$3 -18%
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 12 $15 −$1 -7%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -3%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -7%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $1 $0 -10%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -14%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$3 -60%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2 $0 -0%
Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4? Jun 12 $10 −$8 -78%
Kash Patel out by June 30? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -53%
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the Jun 12 $5 −$2 -44%
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Jun 12 $4 $0 -6%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $4 $0 +3%
China x Japan military clash before 2027? Jun 12 $5 $0 -3%
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? Jun 12 $4 $0 +6%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO Jun 12 $7 −$2 -34%
Fetterman leaves the Democrats by June 30? Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
SAVE America Act becomes law by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 12 $7 −$2 -31%
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $17 −$12 -72%
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Jun 12 $7 −$1 -10%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $19 +$3 +18%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $7 −$1 -8%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$4 -38%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $7 $0 -5%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Jun 12 $7 $0 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $14 −$7 -52%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $8 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $8 +$1 +14%
Will Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Jun 12 $10 −$2 -18%
US military draft authorized in 2026? Jun 12 $9 $0 -3%
Another Elon baby by June 30? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in June? Jun 12 $9 $0 +6%
Over $500k committed to the ALIGN public sale? Jun 12 $9 $0 +1%
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $10 $0 -5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $15 −$5 -34%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 36% −$83
other 32% −$20
sports 18% +$14
economics 9% −$10
world 2% +$23
crypto 2% +$2
tech 1% −$7
culture 0% $0
weather 0% $0
finance 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 4m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $2 22m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 59¢ $1 34m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 71¢ $4 46m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 71¢ $4 58m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $2 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 70¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 69¢ $3 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 1h
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31? BUY No 40¢ $2 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 2h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Under 59¢ $3 2h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 2h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 3h
Will Nashville SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 28h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $3 28h
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch? SELL No 87¢ $3 28h
Will Oro launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $4 28h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $4 28h
Will the St. Louis Cardinals clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? SELL No 62¢ $8 28h
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 72¢ $11 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 158 -4.7% -13.7% 41% 15% -12.7%
≤30d 311 -1.9% -11.3% 43% 20% -11.8%
≤90d 313 -2.0% -11.3% 43% 20% -12.5%
all 493 +0.6% -9.0% 40% 20% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 20% -9.6%
10% -17.7% 17% -18.3%
15% -25.6% 14% -26.2%
20% -32.9% 12% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.18 · official $26.18 (match) · 2024 history records