trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? | No | 6¢ | 0¢ | $2,400 | $0 | −$2,400 (-100%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | No | 6¢ | 0¢ | $2,400 | $0 | −$2,400 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? | Jun 12 | $4,662 | +$338 | +7% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | Jun 12 | $2,400 | −$2,400 | -100% |
| MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? | Jun 08 | $2,400 | −$2,400 | -100% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $10,105 | +$20,262 | +200% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 3? | Jun 23 | $97 | −$97 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? | Jun 23 | $350 | −$350 | -100% |
| Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9? | Jun 23 | $600 | −$600 | -100% |
| MicroStrategy purchases >10000 BTC June 3-9? | Jun 23 | $4,298 | +$823 | +19% |
| Will MicroStrategy hold 600k+ BTC before July? | Jun 17 | $3,520 | +$3,400 | +97% |
| Will MicroStrategy hold 550k+ BTC before May? | Jun 03 | $6,160 | −$6,160 | -100% |
| Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? | Jun 03 | $1,278 | +$8,722 | +683% |
| Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin March 25-31? | Apr 07 | $10,960 | +$2,040 | +19% |
| Will MicroStrategy buy 200+ Bitcoin in next purchase? | Mar 24 | $7,050 | +$2,950 | +42% |
| Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24? | Mar 23 | $4,029 | +$2,698 | +67% |
| Berachain airdrop in Q1 2025? | Feb 07 | $5,050 | −$50 | -1% |
| Ethena crash in 2024? | Jan 01 | $71 | −$71 | -100% |
| Ethena USDe flips USDC market cap in 2024? | Jan 01 | $94 | −$94 | -100% |
| Will Kraken IPO in 2024? | Jan 01 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Starmer out as UK prime minister in 2024? | Jan 01 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? | Jan 01 | $30 | −$30 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -64.2% | -67.7% | 33% | 0% | -52.2% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +1.9% | -7.8% | 50% | 25% | +63.5% |
| ≤90d | 4 | +1.9% | -7.8% | 50% | 25% | +63.5% |
| all | 20 | +1.6% | -8.1% | 40% | 35% | +31.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -8.1% | 35% | +31.5% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -16.9% | 25% | +18.9% |
| 15% | -24.9% | 25% | +7.4% |
| 20% | -32.2% | 20% | -3.1% |