Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:48:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc2d6…a2a5 other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 260d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$32 (-15%) realized −$29 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%5W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$36
sports 26% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -71.9% -74.6% 0% 0% -74.6%
≤90d 1 -71.9% -74.6% 0% 0% -74.6%
all 16 -10.5% -19.1% 31% 31% -27.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 31% -27.8%
10% -26.8% 25% -34.7%
15% -33.9% 19% -41.0%
20% -40.4% 12% -46.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -72% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

260d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$29
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses5 / 11
Open positions3
Markets (closed)16 / 19
History coverage260d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-20%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Team Vitality win LEC 2026 Spring? May 23 $10 −$7 -72%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Feb 26 $4 +$10 +270%
Will another company be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Canadiens vs. Devils Jan 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Wild vs. Hurricanes Jan 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder Jan 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 19 $25 −$15 -60%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 19 $10 −$6 -59%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 03 $2 $0 -6%
Will Team Falcons win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? Dec 10 $6 +$2 +32%
Capitals vs. Hurricanes Nov 12 $4 +$6 +144%
Will Top Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 31 $17 +$7 +41%
Will Hanwha Life Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 25 $12 −$3 -26%
Will Bilibili Gaming win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 25 $14 +$3 +20%
Will G2 Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 24 $2 −$1 -32%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31? Oct 02 $20 −$4 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $9 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $41 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $11 7d
Will Team Vitality win LEC 2026 Spring? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 25d
Will Team Vitality win LEC 2026 Spring? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 43d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL JD Gaming 100¢ $14 111d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY JD Gaming 27¢ $4 111d
Will another company be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 111d
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 151d
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 151d
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 152d
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 152d
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 155d
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 155d
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 155d
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 155d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 165d
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 165d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 165d
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 165d
Will Team Falcons win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 189d
Will Team Falcons win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 192d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Lakers 27¢ $7 216d
Capitals vs. Hurricanes BUY Capitals 41¢ $4 217d
Canadiens vs. Devils BUY Canadiens 44¢ $5 222d
Wild vs. Hurricanes BUY Wild 36¢ $5 222d
Will Top Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 229d
Will Top Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 230d
Will Hanwha Life Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 235d
Will Top Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 235d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.17 · official $57.17 (match) · 54 history records