Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:38:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
C2 0xc2d6…8727 other 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$905 (+18%) realized +$905 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%12W / 13L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$1,073
14 days+$1,237
30 days+$1,188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$902
sports 42% +$416
crypto 12% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +24.5% +12.6% 50% 50% +23.3%
≤30d 22 +28.1% +15.9% 50% 50% +21.2%
≤90d 25 +21.1% +9.6% 48% 48% +18.7%
all 25 +21.1% +9.6% 48% 48% +18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.6% 48% +18.7%
10% -0.9% 48% +7.4%
15% -10.5% 48% -3.0%
20% -19.3% 48% -12.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$266 vs −$144 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$905
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses12 / 13
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 29
History coverage34d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 19 $109 −$105 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 19 $78 +$71 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$83 +81%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $359 +$569 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $104 +$143 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $39 +$139 +360%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND W Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $199 −$195 -98%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $42 +$30 +70%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $85 −$83 -98%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals Jun 14 $27 −$26 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $347 +$275 +79%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 13 $621 −$621 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $389 +$443 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $234 +$585 +250%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $77 +$164 +213%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $156 +$258 +165%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $157 −$154 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 21 $156 −$153 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 19 $79 −$77 -98%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $390 +$426 +109%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $233 −$227 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 17¢ $161 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $148 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end BUY 15¢ $207 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $187 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 28¢ $312 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 38¢ $359 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $247 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $178 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $39 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND W SELL 0¢ $0 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $199 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-1 BUY 39¢ $51 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $85 4d
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $27 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND W BUY 6¢ $34 4d
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $72 4d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $621 4d
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 58¢ $42 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $157.28 · 50 history records