trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 11 | -9.8% | -18.4% | 45% | 0% | -8.8% |
| ≤90d | 11 | -9.8% | -18.4% | 45% | 0% | -8.8% |
| all | 24 | -5.7% | -14.7% | 50% | 0% | -8.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.7% | 0% | -8.9% |
| 10% | -22.8% | 0% | -17.7% |
| 15% | -30.3% | 0% | -25.6% |
| 20% | -37.1% | 0% | -32.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | No | 91¢ | 91¢ | $39 | $39 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | Jun 17 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 27 | $1 | $0 | -12% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 26 | $41 | +$2 | +4% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 26 | $37 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 24 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 24 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 23 | $41 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | May 21 | $16 | $0 | -3% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | May 20 | $2 | $0 | -1% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | May 19 | $29 | +$1 | +2% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | May 19 | $37 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 11 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? | Jun 25 | $10 | $0 | -1% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 22 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? | May 20 | $9 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? | May 20 | $11 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | May 03 | $14 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City | Apr 16 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? | Apr 15 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? | Mar 31 | $13 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? | Mar 24 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? | Mar 22 | $1 | $0 | -40% |
| Will Donald Trump say "Milady" during Crypto Summit on Friday? | Mar 11 | $13 | $0 | +1% |