trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 4¢ | 2¢ | $10,015 | $5,097 | −$4,917 (-49%) |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 55¢ | 34¢ | $100 | $62 | −$38 (-38%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas | Jun 02 | $431,507 | −$431,507 | -100% |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? | May 20 | $2,196,205 | +$747,166 | +34% |
| Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-13? | May 14 | $255,688 | +$270,430 | +106% |
| Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-05-09? | May 12 | $33,880 | −$33,880 | -100% |
| Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-05-10? | May 12 | $227,245 | +$208,904 | +92% |
| Will Le Havre AC win on 2026-05-10? | May 10 | $1,380 | −$195 | -14% |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? | May 06 | $1,621,311 | +$436,585 | +27% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-25? | Apr 30 | $1,465,010 | +$377,861 | +26% |
| Spread: Magic (-10.5) | Apr 17 | $379,719 | −$379,719 | -100% |
| Spread: Magic (-12.5) | Apr 17 | $30,114 | −$30,114 | -100% |
| Warriors vs. Clippers | Apr 17 | $112,544 | −$112,544 | -100% |
| Spread: Spurs (-9.5) | Apr 16 | $14,600 | −$2 | -0% |
| Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-04-11? | Apr 16 | $19,808 | +$36,786 | +186% |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-11? | Apr 16 | $154,150 | +$54,174 | +35% |
| Will Brentford FC win on 2026-04-11? | Apr 11 | $101,950 | −$101,950 | -100% |
| Spread: Heat (-15.5) | Apr 11 | $265,131 | −$265,131 | -100% |
| Spread: Spurs (-3.5) | Apr 10 | $85,117 | −$85,117 | -100% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | Apr 10 | $179,481 | −$179,481 | -100% |
| Spread: Warriors (-14.5) | Apr 08 | $537,113 | +$530,223 | +99% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets | Apr 07 | $134,626 | −$134,626 | -100% |
| Spread: Spurs (-8.5) | Apr 07 | $450,293 | −$450,293 | -100% |
| Blackhawks vs. Sharks | Apr 07 | $172,546 | +$115,289 | +67% |
| Spread: Nuggets (-7.5) | Apr 07 | $198,413 | +$170,054 | +86% |
| Spread: Suns (-10.5) | Apr 06 | $530,516 | −$530,516 | -100% |
| Devils vs. Canadiens | Apr 06 | $77,735 | +$98,936 | +127% |
| Spread: Hornets (-3.5) | Apr 06 | $387,453 | +$295,382 | +76% |
| Spread: Bucks (-6.5) | Apr 06 | $549,524 | +$412,172 | +75% |
| Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-04-04? | Apr 05 | $82,159 | +$78,872 | +96% |
| Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-04-04? | Apr 05 | $363,000 | −$363,000 | -100% |
| Spread: Pistons (-3.5) | Apr 05 | $600,994 | −$600,994 | -100% |
| Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-04-04? | Apr 04 | $500,872 | +$613,943 | +123% |
| Spread: Raptors (-13.5) | Apr 04 | $12,172 | +$10,062 | +83% |
| Spread: Hawks (-16.5) | Apr 04 | $220,368 | −$220,368 | -100% |
| Cavaliers vs. Lakers | Apr 03 | $539,154 | −$539,154 | -100% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Clippers | Apr 01 | $254,882 | +$424,362 | +166% |
| Spread: Clippers (-14.5) | Mar 24 | $88,245 | −$88,245 | -100% |
| Spread: Clippers (-13.5) | Mar 24 | $506,479 | −$506,479 | -100% |
| Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) | Mar 23 | $41,550 | +$36,335 | +88% |
| Pacers vs. Spurs: O/U 233.5 | Mar 21 | $10,000 | $0 | -0% |
| Raptors vs. Nuggets | Mar 21 | $30,874 | −$30,874 | -100% |
| Spread: Nuggets (-7.5) | Mar 21 | $165,000 | +$137,001 | +83% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves | Mar 21 | $698,661 | +$691,407 | +99% |
| Spread: Hornets (-5.5) | Mar 20 | $641,410 | +$572,137 | +89% |
| Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-03-15? | Mar 17 | $110,402 | −$110,402 | -100% |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-14? | Mar 15 | $4,429,504 | +$1,688,223 | +38% |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-07? | Mar 07 | $477,520 | +$268,649 | +56% |
| Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-03-06? | Mar 07 | $1,214,000 | +$702,462 | +58% |
| Hawks vs. Bucks | Mar 05 | $419,223 | +$403,330 | +96% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-08? | Feb 09 | $2,900,391 | +$1,283,051 | +44% |
| 76ers vs. Clippers | Feb 03 | $625,000 | −$625,000 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 3 | +13.3% | +2.5% | 67% | 67% | +8.9% |
| ≤90d | 45 | -2.5% | -11.8% | 49% | 49% | +3.3% |
| all | 71 | +6.9% | -3.3% | 55% | 55% | +0.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -3.3% | 55% | +0.9% |
| 10% | -12.6% | 55% | -8.7% |
| 15% ← realistic here | -21.0% | 49% | -17.5% |
| 20% | -28.8% | 46% | -25.6% |