Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:28:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C2 0xc2e9…e288 crypto 530 markets active 0h ago coverage 91d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 90d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,056 (-2%) realized −$6,727 · open +$1,671
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate79%403W / 105L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$555per market
Trades / day31.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$42,541now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 91d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% −$5,132
other 43% +$13,173
world 7% −$4,917
tech 5% +$1,243
weather 0% −$335
culture 0% +$40
politics 0% −$42
sports 0% −$25
economics 0% −$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -23.2% -30.6% 62% 35% -11.4%
≤30d 124 -15.0% -23.1% 73% 30% -3.8%
≤90d 491 -7.5% -16.3% 79% 21% -8.6%
all 508 -7.8% -16.5% 79% 21% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.5% 21% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.5% 9% -17.4%
15% -31.8% 5% -25.4%
20% -38.5% 2% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$262 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$42,541
Realized−$6,727
Unrealized+$1,671
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses403 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions22
Markets (closed)508 / 530
History coverage91d ⚠
Avg bet$555
Trades / day31.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 508 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 86¢ 92¢ $26,631 $28,615 +$1,984 (+7%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 77¢ 74¢ $3,856 $3,725 −$131 (-3%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? No 95¢ 94¢ $2,850 $2,835 −$15 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $1,840 $1,866 +$26 (+1%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,034 $1,037 +$3 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No 58¢ 48¢ $1,150 $940 −$210 (-18%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 87¢ $872 $872 −$0 (-0%)
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 76¢ 81¢ $624 $664 +$39 (+6%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $620 $615 −$5 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $384 $381 −$3 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 52¢ $330 $315 −$15 (-5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 92¢ $184 $184 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $177 $175 −$2 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 86¢ $173 $172 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $110 $110 −$0 (-0%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 86¢ 88¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 59¢ 62¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 69¢ 70¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $225 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 18 $827 +$34 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $400 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $201 +$9 +4%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $339 −$338 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $706 +$191 +27%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $51 −$49 -95%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $517 −$278 -54%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $11,182 +$516 +5%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $83 +$17 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,683 +$17 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $34 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $170 +$75 +44%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $473 −$239 -50%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $189 +$11 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $260 +$125 +48%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $190 −$190 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$2 +16%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $24 −$24 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5,339 +$111 +2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $109 −$86 -78%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 12 $3,222 −$841 -26%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $124 +$5 +4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $45 +$8 +17%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,045 +$454 +43%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 11 $51 +$17 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 11 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 11 $250 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $227 +$26 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 11 $901 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 11 $61 +$14 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 11 $297 +$15 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 11 $452 +$35 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $77 +$17 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 11 $427 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $227 +$30 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $122 −$122 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 11 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $300 +$16 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 11 $201 +$9 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19? BUY No 99¢ $99 10m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $875 53m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $173 55m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $184 55m
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 80¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19? BUY No 99¢ $737 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? BUY No 95¢ $1,100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19? BUY No 99¢ $119 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19? BUY No 99¢ $79 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? BUY No 95¢ $131 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? BUY No 95¢ $26 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? BUY No 95¢ $56 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? BUY No 95¢ $1,318 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? BUY No 95¢ $219 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $150 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42,541.37 · official $42,541.08 (match) · 3500 history records