Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:43:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc2f2…c1e3 other 17 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$18 (-19%) realized −$23 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip
Net edge-65%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$17
sports 11% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-62.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -58.1% -62.1% 25% 25% -59.6%
≤30d 8 -58.1% -62.1% 25% 25% -59.6%
≤90d 8 -58.1% -62.1% 25% 25% -59.6%
all 8 -58.1% -62.1% 25% 25% -59.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -62.1% 25% -59.6%
10% -65.8% 25% -63.4%
15% -69.1% 25% -67.0%
20% -72.1% 12% -70.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -58% · $-wt -55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)8 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $16 $20 +$4 (+26%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 50¢ 56¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 62¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 45¢ 40¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 99¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6 +$3 +42%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $16 5d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 5d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 5d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $6 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.20 · official $58.20 (match) · 24 history records