Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:32:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C2 0xc2f2…c308 other 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$72 (+5%) realized +$71 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%16W / 33L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$137
14 days+$180
30 days+$150
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$255
sports 11% +$7
crypto 6% −$22
politics 2% −$32
finance 1% −$12
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +25.7% +13.7% 45% 36% +22.2%
≤30d 42 -1.1% -10.5% 36% 33% +6.7%
≤90d 42 -1.1% -10.5% 36% 33% +6.7%
all 49 -11.2% -19.7% 33% 31% +6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 31% +6.6%
10% -27.4% 31% -3.6%
15% -34.4% 31% -12.9%
20% -40.8% 18% -21.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$9 · ×3.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized+$71
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses16 / 33
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 62
History coverage172d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $90 $91 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $65 +$36 +56%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $76 −$3 -4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 Jun 25 $20 −$2 -9%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Jun 24 $31 −$4 -13%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $31 +$85 +276%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $16 +$21 +131%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $71 +$34 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$51 +50%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$12 -76%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $16 +$35 +216%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$8 +39%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 −$1 -7%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 +$4 +36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11 +$5 +48%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$33 +325%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $33 −$28 -83%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$5 -35%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$7 -73%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +250%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$28 +272%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$9 -43%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will McDonald's (MCD) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Coinbase Global (COIN) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 09 $119 +$115 +97%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,850-$4,975 in January? Jan 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Citigroup (C) beat quarterly earnings? Jan 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legisla Jan 07 $32 −$32 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 72¢ $91 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $14 34h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 30¢ $7 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 43¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 66¢ $9 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 66¢ $20 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25 BUY 42¢ $41 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 SELL 24¢ $19 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 65¢ $27 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 51¢ $19 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 25¢ $20 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 3d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06- BUY 16¢ $10 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND SELL 29¢ $27 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06 BUY 50¢ $30 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 35¢ $31 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 57¢ $21 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 32¢ $31 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06- BUY 13¢ $21 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY 55¢ $20 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 34¢ $15 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY 53¢ $30 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 26¢ $31 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.62 · official $90.62 (match) · 113 history records