Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:52:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc2fa…7b04 crypto 25 markets active 2d ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-8%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%10W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day15.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$3
sports 31% +$3
other 20% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -10.2% -18.8% 40% 40% -20.1%
≤30d 25 -10.2% -18.8% 40% 40% -20.1%
≤90d 25 -10.2% -18.8% 40% 40% -20.1%
all 25 -10.2% -18.8% 40% 40% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 40% -20.1%
10% -26.5% 36% -27.7%
15% -33.6% 36% -34.7%
20% -40.1% 24% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses10 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage3d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day15.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -83%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -79%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +50%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +169%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +95%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +89%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 +$2 +109%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +74%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 47h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 8¢ $0 47h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 36¢ $1 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $2 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 72¢ $2 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $1 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $4 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 BUY Under 0¢ $1 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Under 0¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $2 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 54 history records