Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:10:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C2
0xc2fe…6dac
other · 43 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$9 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$28
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses15 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage466d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 1 History 42 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? Yes 67¢ 62¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $9 −$3 -35%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $33 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $36 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $31 $0 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 15 $1 $0 +6%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $10 $0 -4%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the San Francisco 49ers? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $4 −$1 -27%
Ethereum above $2,800 on May 30? May 31 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 16 $4 $0 -6%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? May 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% or more in April? May 10 $14 $0 -0%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? May 10 $14 +$1 +10%
Will the next Pope be from North America? May 08 $14 $0 -1%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will Sali Berisha be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 May 07 $13 $0 +1%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? May 06 $7 −$1 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $101000 and $103000 on May 9? May 06 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $15 +$1 +7%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will the AFD be part of the next German government? Apr 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 04 $15 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Apr 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days? Apr 01 $15 $0 -0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian Mar 31 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz in his first 100 days? Mar 31 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon go on Daily Show before April? Mar 30 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 57°F or higher on March 27? Mar 29 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Mar 28 $2 $0 -2%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 27 $16 $0 -2%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Mar 27 $1 $0 -14%
Will Solana hit $190 in March? Mar 24 $17 $0 -3%
Israeli military action against Iran by Friday? Mar 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election? Mar 20 $14 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 37% −$6
other 30% −$1
politics 18% $0
sports 5% +$1
crypto 4% −$2
tech 3% −$1
weather 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 67¢ $30 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $30 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $22 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $8 7h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $33 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $33 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $9 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $27 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $36 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $36 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $36 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 67¢ $21 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 67¢ $5 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 67¢ $5 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 68¢ $31 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $17 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $17 7d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 91¢ $5 351d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 91¢ $5 351d
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $1 354d
Ethereum above $2,800 on May 30? BUY No 99¢ $2 378d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? SELL No 69¢ $4 392d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? BUY No 73¢ $4 395d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 395d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 395d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 395d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 395d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -11.1% -19.5% 67% 0% -13.1%
≤30d 7 -5.0% -14.0% 43% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 7 -5.0% -14.0% 43% 0% -11.1%
all 42 -6.5% -15.4% 36% 0% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 0% -10.4%
10% -23.5% 0% -19.0%
15% -30.9% 0% -26.8%
20% -37.7% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.68 · official $27.68 (match) · 128 history records