Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:45:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc303…df04 crypto 83 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (108 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6,448 (+5%) realized +$6,448 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate75%62W / 21L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,563per market
Trades / day107.7pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$3,061
other 7% +$352
sports 4% +$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (108 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -2.9% -12.1% 75% 41% -11.3%
≤30d 83 -2.9% -12.1% 75% 41% -11.3%
≤90d 83 -2.9% -12.1% 75% 41% -11.3%
all 83 -2.9% -12.1% 75% 41% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover107.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 41% -11.3%
10% -20.5% 19% -19.8%
15% ← realistic here -28.2% 8% -27.6%
20% -35.2% 1% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$1,520) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$213 vs −$753 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6,448
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses62 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions0
Markets (closed)83 / 83
History coverage5d
Avg bet$1,563
Trades / day107.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 83 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $151 −$49 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $362 +$25 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $331 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $150 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $331 +$17 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $321 +$11 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $311 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $90 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$14 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $14,667 −$14,450 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $1,520 +$339 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $12,508 +$1,826 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $11,076 +$1,405 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $6,510 +$141 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $8,910 +$2,117 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $7,194 +$1,679 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $6,547 +$731 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $6,172 +$330 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $5,542 +$660 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $3,461 +$162 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $4,787 +$578 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $4,578 +$275 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $3,618 +$292 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $3,421 +$330 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $2,816 +$261 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $506 +$96 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $2,018 −$41 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $1,004 +$72 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $1,005 +$76 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $1,003 +$41 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $1,359 +$144 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $351 +$15 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $301 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $806 +$94 +12%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $242 +$102 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $654 +$56 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $203 +$44 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $455 +$88 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $203 +$69 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$38 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $53 −$17 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $51 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $50 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $50 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $51 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $50 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $50 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 27m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 622 history records