Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:26:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc305…b662 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$986 (-16%) realized −$986 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate35%6W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$353per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$87
7 days−$1,001
14 days−$966
30 days−$966
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$927
sports 3% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-38.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -32.6% -39.1% 33% 27% -25.0%
≤30d 17 -32.1% -38.6% 35% 29% -24.2%
≤90d 17 -32.1% -38.6% 35% 29% -24.2%
all 17 -32.1% -38.6% 35% 29% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.6% 29% -24.2%
10% -44.5% 24% -31.4%
15% -49.8% 24% -38.0%
20% -54.7% 12% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$125 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$986
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses6 / 11
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage10d
Avg bet$353
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $151 +$56 +37%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$9 -86%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $602 +$72 +12%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $26 −$23 -88%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $13 −$4 -27%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $21 −$11 -53%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$1 -8%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 +$44 +86%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $605 −$121 -20%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $1,203 −$1,104 -92%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,079 +$183 +6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $100 +$43 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $207 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 3h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 3h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes $3 29h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 30h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 30h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $201 30h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 30h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $201 30h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 42h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 42h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 42h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 42h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 42h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 44h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 17¢ $9 44h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $9 44h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $9 44h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 44h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 44h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 44h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 44h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $41 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $95 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 55¢ $94 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 54 history records