Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:49:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C3 0xc307…5eea crypto 108 markets active 2h ago coverage 530d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$208 (-3%) realized −$197 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate92%95W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$61
sports 26% −$131
crypto 24% −$3
other 5% +$6
economics 4% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 1 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 3 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 103 -0.3% -9.8% 92% 6% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 6% -12.4%
10% -18.5% 4% -20.8%
15% -26.3% 2% -28.5%
20% -33.6% 1% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$27 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

530d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized−$197
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses95 / 8
Open positions5
Markets (closed)103 / 108
History coverage530d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-0%)
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 95¢ 43¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-55%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-53%)
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 89¢ 16¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-81%)
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? Yes 45¢ 6¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 5? May 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 16? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on February 23? Feb 25 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on February 20? Feb 21 $83 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on February 16? Feb 20 $83 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on February 15? Feb 16 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on February 15? Feb 16 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on February 15? Feb 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 15? Feb 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on February 15? Feb 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 15? Feb 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 15? Feb 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on February 15? Feb 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on January 10? Feb 08 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on January 10? Feb 08 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on January 10? Feb 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Jan 10 $2 $0 +0%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jan 10 $3 $0 +0%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Jan 10 $8 +$2 +32%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 10 $41 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on December 15? Dec 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 13? Dec 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 13? Dec 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 12? Dec 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 12? Dec 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 13? Dec 15 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on December 10? Dec 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on December 10? Dec 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on December 10? Dec 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on December 10? Dec 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 8? Dec 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on December 8? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Stable launch a token in 2025? Dec 10 $12 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 6? Dec 08 $59 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on December 3? Dec 06 $59 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in November? Dec 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on November 30 Dec 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 in November? Dec 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 30? Dec 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $110 in November? Dec 03 $3 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $90 in November? Dec 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on November 30 Dec 03 $4 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? Dec 03 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? Dec 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 28 $33 −$1 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on November 27? Nov 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on November 2 Nov 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $160 on November 27? Nov 28 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on November 26? Nov 27 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $80 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $80 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 48d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 67d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on February 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $80 119d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on February 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $83 122d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on February 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $83 126d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on February 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 127d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on February 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 127d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on February 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 127d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on February 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 127d
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on February 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 127d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 127d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 127d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 127d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on January 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 163d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on January 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 163d
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on January 10? BUY No 100¢ $3 163d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $2 174d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $41 174d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 174d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on December 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 189d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 191d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 13? BUY No 100¢ $2 191d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 191d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 192d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 192d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on December 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 194d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on December 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 194d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on December 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 194d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.82 · official $84.74 (match) · 220 history records