Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:56:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C3 0xc30b…b9db other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,017 (+22%) realized +$1,028 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$924per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$968now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$991
sports 44% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +9.9% -0.6% 50% 50% +14.3%
≤30d 4 +9.9% -0.6% 50% 50% +14.3%
≤90d 4 +9.9% -0.6% 50% 50% +14.3%
all 4 +9.9% -0.6% 50% 50% +14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.6% 50% +14.3%
10% -10.1% 50% +3.4%
15% -18.8% 50% -6.6%
20% -26.8% 50% -15.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$745 vs −$269 · ×2.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.77 per $1 lost it wins $2.77
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$968
Realized+$1,028
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage2d
Avg bet$924
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Los Angeles Dodgers 56¢ 56¢ $979 $968 −$11 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 28 $1,030 −$38 -4%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $512 −$500 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1,013 +$738 +73%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,072 +$753 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 56¢ $2 53m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 56¢ $990 54m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Tampa Bay Rays 63¢ $992 57m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 64¢ $2 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 64¢ $1,028 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 19¢ $512 10h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 57¢ $1,013 35h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 38h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,069 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $967.89 · official $967.89 (match) · 12 history records