Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:41:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc310…20cb other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$34 (+8%) realized +$8 · open +$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate5%3W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$54
7 days−$56
14 days−$56
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-48.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -43.9% -49.2% 4% 4% -70.3%
≤30d 59 -43.3% -48.7% 5% 5% -70.0%
≤90d 59 -43.3% -48.7% 5% 5% -70.0%
all 59 -43.3% -48.7% 5% 5% -70.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.7% 5% -70.0%
10% -53.6% 5% -72.9%
15% -58.1% 5% -75.5%
20% -62.2% 5% -77.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -66% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$2 · ×10.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$206
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses3 / 56
Open positions24
Markets (closed)59 / 10
History coverage20d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 18¢ $8 $37 +$29 (+381%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 16¢ $8 $33 +$25 (+329%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 16¢ $8 $33 +$25 (+329%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 10¢ $10 $23 +$13 (+136%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 5¢ 9¢ $11 $22 +$11 (+102%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 9¢ $8 $17 +$10 (+125%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+53%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+16%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+13%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-23%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $8 $3 −$5 (-65%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-73%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-66%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $8 $1 −$6 (-82%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $6 $1 −$6 (-88%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $8 $1 −$7 (-92%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$7 (-93%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$7 (-93%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$7 (-96%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$7 (-96%)
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +202%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$1 -67%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -72%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -138%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -140%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 24 $1 +$3 +495%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 24 $0 $0 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $195 1h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $64 23h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $39 26h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 4d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 4d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $206.16 · official $206.20 (match) · 78 history records