Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:29:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc313…6645 sports 744 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$820 (-5%) realized −$827 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%369W / 372L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day19.9pace
Fees−$241est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$48
7 days−$232
14 days−$328
30 days−$883
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$769
other 9% −$483
world 5% +$546
politics 1% +$51
crypto 1% −$35
tech 0% $0
finance 0% −$14
weather 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -16.3% -24.3% 42% 40% -34.1%
≤30d 334 -4.6% -13.7% 46% 43% -22.8%
≤90d 741 -1.0% -10.5% 50% 46% -13.3%
all 741 -1.0% -10.5% 50% 46% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 46% -13.3%
10% -19.0% 43% -21.6%
15% -26.9% 40% -29.2%
20% -34.0% 35% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$17 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$827
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses369 / 372
Est. fees paid−$241
Open positions3
Markets (closed)741 / 744
History coverage73d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day19.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 741 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Team Falcons 57¢ 58¢ $34 $35 +$1 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 40¢ 70¢ $8 $14 +$6 (+76%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $19 −$7 -34%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $35 +$33 +97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $21 −$21 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $26 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $14 +$14 +105%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $35 −$4 -13%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 18 $15 −$2 -12%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $19 +$21 +105%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $9 +$3 +34%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $14 +$6 +40%
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E Jun 16 $25 +$7 +26%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $33 −$32 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $31 −$30 -99%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $7 +$9 +137%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $8 +$12 +140%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $15 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $11 −$11 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $17 +$8 +50%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $18 +$3 +19%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $4 +$6 +152%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $26 +$14 +52%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $14 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $11 −$11 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $9 +$11 +122%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $12 −$1 -12%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $11 +$9 +76%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $9 +$11 +114%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 +$4 +42%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $8 +$12 +152%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $53 −$35 -67%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $20 +$15 +73%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $30 +$6 +19%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $71 +$22 +31%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $11 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 40¢ $8 1h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 57¢ $35 1h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $13 1h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $26 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 30¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 46¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 52¢ $15 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 63¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 63¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 63¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 33¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 49¢ $15 3h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) SELL G2 100¢ $68 3h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 50¢ $35 6h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $21 21h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 43¢ $26 21h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $26 21h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $28 21h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 48¢ $14 24h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $4 24h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $5 24h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 33¢ $5 24h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 46¢ $25 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $28 28h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $22 34h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $10 44h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 60¢ $12 44h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 44¢ $9 45h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $19 47h
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E SELL No 72¢ $21 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.95 · official $58.95 · 2000 history records