Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:13:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C3 0xc315…fe18 world 126 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3,158 (+0%) realized +$1,134 · open +$2,024
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate90%94W / 11L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$7,346per market
Trades / day41.4pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$54,235now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 78d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$27,155
politics 30% +$1,103
other 6% +$3,619
sports 4% +$345
economics 3% +$3,118
crypto 2% +$93
culture 0% +$35
finance 0% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)+7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -5.0% -14.1% 89% 11% -7.2%
≤30d 38 +5.2% -4.8% 92% 8% -9.0%
≤90d 105 +18.5% +7.2% 90% 16% -5.7%
all 105 +18.5% +7.2% 90% 16% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.2% 16% -5.7%
10% -3.0% 11% -14.7%
15% ← realistic here -12.4% 9% -23.0%
20% -21.0% 9% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$5,744) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +33% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
14.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$362 vs −$86 · ×4.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×43.99 per $1 lost it wins $43.99
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$54,235
Realized+$1,134
Unrealized+$2,024
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses94 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions29
Markets (closed)105 / 126
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$7,346
Trades / day41.4
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $9,620 $9,985 +$365 (+4%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $7,981 $7,988 +$7 (+0%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $4,850 $4,990 +$140 (+3%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 92¢ $3,838 $3,962 +$124 (+3%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 92¢ 93¢ $3,670 $3,730 +$60 (+2%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 88¢ 92¢ $3,502 $3,700 +$198 (+6%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 85¢ 95¢ $2,557 $2,848 +$291 (+11%)
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $2,784 $2,835 +$51 (+2%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 89¢ 90¢ $2,660 $2,715 +$55 (+2%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $1,927 $1,987 +$60 (+3%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 82¢ 88¢ $1,649 $1,750 +$101 (+6%)
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 89¢ 97¢ $1,393 $1,513 +$120 (+9%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $917 $937 +$20 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 89¢ 92¢ $890 $925 +$35 (+4%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 65¢ 84¢ $650 $835 +$185 (+29%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 83¢ 81¢ $832 $815 −$17 (-2%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 89¢ 94¢ $470 $499 +$29 (+6%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $362 $385 +$23 (+6%)
Will Elon register any party before 2027? No 74¢ 94¢ $259 $331 +$72 (+28%)
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No 83¢ 96¢ $250 $287 +$37 (+15%)
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? No 84¢ 97¢ $211 $243 +$32 (+15%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $225 $240 +$15 (+7%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 89¢ 90¢ $177 $181 +$4 (+2%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 72¢ 72¢ $145 $145 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 99¢ $93 $99 +$6 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8? Jun 17 $180 −$165 -91%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3,297 +$145 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $4,889 +$181 +4%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 15 $405 +$101 +25%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 15 $1,979 +$13 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $1,148 +$7 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $960 +$48 +5%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $382 +$10 +3%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 13 $248 +$11 +4%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 10 $7,373 +$96 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $2,991 +$9 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Jun 06 $277 +$29 +10%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $21,851 +$92 +0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $6,837 −$35 -0%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? Jun 01 $45 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $1,486 +$12 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $6,559 +$141 +2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $208 +$392 +188%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? Jun 01 $974 +$26 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $52,560 +$637 +1%
Netanyahu out by May 31? Jun 01 $8,344 +$74 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $490 +$2 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $382 +$7 +2%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? May 29 $194 +$5 +3%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $210,000 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 28 $979 +$17 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $484 +$14 +3%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026? May 27 $3,635 +$15 +0%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 27 $2,165 +$22 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $6,363 +$126 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 25 $292 +$12 +4%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $22,149 +$132 +1%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $38,875 +$197 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $943 +$47 +5%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 20 $180 +$20 +11%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15? May 19 $1,996 +$4 +0%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 19 $8,825 +$39 +0%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? May 18 $86 +$6 +6%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 18 $2,380 +$50 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $478 +$22 +5%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $3,027 +$111 +4%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? May 15 $4,782 +$12 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 14 $21,806 +$3,112 +14%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 13 $1,995 +$5 +0%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 13 $5,954 +$46 +1%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026? May 13 $999 +$1 +0%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 12 $874 +$1 +0%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 12 $549 −$130 -24%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 11 $297 −$3 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $997 48m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $997 48m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $997 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $998 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,278 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $998 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $998 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $998 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $998 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $4,695 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $435 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $998 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $998 9h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? BUY No 70¢ $70 12h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $487 14h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 66¢ $40 14h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 66¢ $3 14h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 66¢ $3 14h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 66¢ $16 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $998 15h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1,990 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $998 15h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $21 22h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $77 22h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $153 22h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $35 22h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $77 22h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $78 22h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $10 22h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 66¢ $4 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54,235.13 · official $54,235.24 (match) · 3500 history records