Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:52:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C3 0xc318…1adb world 42 markets active 13h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+3%) realized +$8 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate52%17W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$10
14 days+$11
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$12
other 33% $0
finance 23% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +14.8% +3.9% 50% 50% +31.8%
≤30d 17 +9.3% -1.1% 65% 59% +4.8%
≤90d 33 -2.7% -12.0% 52% 45% -9.2%
all 33 -2.7% -12.0% 52% 45% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 45% -9.2%
10% -20.4% 27% -17.9%
15% -28.1% 18% -25.9%
20% -35.1% 15% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses17 / 16
Open positions9
Markets (closed)33 / 42
History coverage74d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 78¢ 88¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+12%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No 81¢ 84¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 44¢ 56¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+27%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No 84¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 89¢ 99¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+11%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026? Yes 23¢ 13¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-43%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? No 88¢ 99¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 66¢ 74¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+13%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 70¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -66%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 25 $5 $0 -2%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +14%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $10 +$11 +113%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -40%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $5 +$4 +81%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -70%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $5 +$1 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 05 $2 +$1 +36%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 05 $8 −$6 -76%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO Jun 04 $5 +$2 +32%
Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by May 31? Jun 02 $5 +$1 +26%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? Jun 02 $28 +$2 +9%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $7 +$1 +11%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o May 30 $5 −$4 -73%
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? May 30 $6 +$7 +122%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 17 $2 −$1 -73%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 17 $3 −$2 -74%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 17 $3 −$2 -77%
Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by April 30? Apr 29 $13 +$2 +15%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in April? Apr 29 $10 −$9 -92%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? Apr 28 $18 −$13 -73%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 25 $6 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $9 +$1 +13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 22 $6 $0 -3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 19 $4 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? Apr 19 $10 +$8 +79%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 19 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 19 $3 $0 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 19 $3 +$2 +65%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? Apr 19 $10 −$2 -14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? Apr 17 $7 −$1 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? BUY No 87¢ $3 12h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 22h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 24h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 24h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 24h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 24h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $2 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 64¢ $1 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $0 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $0 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $0 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $0 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $0 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $0 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 65¢ $0 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 91¢ $0 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 90¢ $0 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 89¢ $0 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 89¢ $0 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 89¢ $1 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 89¢ $0 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $0 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 89¢ $0 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 89¢ $0 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $0 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $2 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 47¢ $1 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 90¢ $0 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 90¢ $0 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.76 · official $40.04 (match) · 320 history records