Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:53:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc31d…b04b world 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+1%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate37%19W / 32L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$17
other 29% $0
politics 6% −$1
culture 3% $0
sports 3% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.7% -11.9% 0% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 17 +5.3% -4.7% 18% 6% -7.6%
≤90d 21 +4.5% -5.4% 29% 5% -7.7%
all 51 -3.0% -12.2% 37% 2% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 2% -8.3%
10% -20.6% 2% -17.1%
15% -28.3% 2% -25.1%
20% -35.3% 2% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.24 per $1 lost it wins $2.24
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses19 / 32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage468d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $49 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $58 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 20 $45 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $19 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $14 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $59 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $26 −$3 -12%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $21 −$2 -8%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $63 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $40 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $79 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $54 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 26 $48 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $54 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $82 −$4 -5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $56 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $22 +$25 +116%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $23 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 20 $48 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 19 $2 $0 +4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 19 $16 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 4? Dec 14 $1 $0 +8%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will valid votes be between 30 million and 32 million in South Korean Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will Kim Kyoung-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 19 $2 $0 +5%
Will Silviu Predoiu win the Romanian presidential election? May 19 $2 −$1 -86%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Apr 28 $12 $0 -0%
Trump declassifies Diddy list? Apr 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 27 $12 $0 +2%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? Apr 25 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 24 $12 $0 -3%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Apr 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will BSW be part of the next German government? Apr 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 20 $12 $0 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 17 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Pope Francis in his first 100 days? Apr 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? Apr 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88000 on Apr 11? Apr 10 $1 −$1 -78%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 10 $1 $0 -4%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Apr 10 $16 $0 -1%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 29 $16 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Mar 26 $16 $0 -1%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 25 $16 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 19 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21? Mar 15 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $15 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $35 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $13 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $58 7h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $58 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $44 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $45 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $19 30h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 43h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 43h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $14 45h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $27 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $33 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $18 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $41 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $6 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.27 · official $48.27 (match) · 150 history records