Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:09:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C3 0xc320…7637 finance 285 markets active 0h ago coverage 335d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,794 (+8%) realized +$3,678 · open +$1,116
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate52%146W / 133L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$219per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$3,664now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$114
14 days−$204
30 days−$567
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 25% +$3,191
finance 24% +$612
politics 21% +$95
world 12% −$365
other 8% +$664
crypto 7% +$14
tech 3% +$391
sports 1% −$359
culture 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -27.1% -34.1% 50% 0% -19.7%
≤30d 11 -45.8% -51.0% 36% 18% -41.6%
≤90d 58 +7.7% -2.5% 48% 38% -11.3%
all 279 +7.4% -2.9% 52% 38% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 38% -4.6%
10% -12.2% 31% -13.8%
15% -20.6% 24% -22.1%
20% -28.4% 19% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$64 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

335d coverage
Net worth$3,664
Realized+$3,678
Unrealized+$1,116
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses146 / 133
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)279 / 285
History coverage335d
Avg bet$219
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 279 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 38¢ 66¢ $1,094 $1,881 +$787 (+72%)
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? No 67¢ 84¢ $870 $1,090 +$220 (+25%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 72¢ 81¢ $288 $324 +$36 (+13%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 78¢ 81¢ $156 $163 +$7 (+4%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 35¢ 92¢ $40 $106 +$66 (+166%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 51¢ 51¢ $79 $79 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 50¢ 49¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Jun 19 $562 +$9 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 17 $338 −$51 -15%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $74 −$74 -100%
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? Jun 15 $43 +$2 +5%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $100 −$90 -90%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $42 −$42 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $18 −$18 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 30 $266 −$243 -91%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $65 +$33 +50%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $96 −$96 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $8 +$4 +46%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $46 −$46 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 15? May 15 $14 −$14 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 14? May 14 $94 −$94 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 11? May 12 $70 +$130 +186%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 11? May 10 $31 −$31 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 10 $150 +$198 +132%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 08 $280 +$149 +53%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 1? May 01 $66 −$66 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? May 01 $372 +$706 +190%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 30? Apr 30 $305 −$276 -90%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 29? Apr 29 $109 +$53 +48%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 29 $416 −$157 -38%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 28 $274 −$195 -71%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 28 $567 −$129 -23%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 27? Apr 27 $173 +$271 +157%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 20? Apr 21 $119 −$98 -83%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 19, 2026? Apr 20 $32 +$216 +672%
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between Apr 18 $10 +$15 +154%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? Apr 17 $145 +$12 +8%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 15? Apr 16 $26 −$26 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 14 $226 −$3 -2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 13? Apr 13 $383 −$2 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 12 $180 −$178 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 12 $139 −$111 -80%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? Apr 12 $175 +$172 +99%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 10? Apr 10 $8 +$19 +233%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 8? Apr 09 $15 −$15 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 8? Apr 08 $40 +$37 +93%
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? Apr 08 $264 +$32 +12%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $275 +$97 +35%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 7? Apr 07 $366 +$143 +39%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 07 $75 −$21 -28%
Blue wave in 2026? Apr 07 $207 +$78 +38%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 05 $159 +$24 +15%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 2? Apr 02 $114 +$149 +131%
S&P 500 breaks its losing streak this week? Apr 02 $41 +$4 +9%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $90+ in March? Apr 01 $17 −$17 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Mar 31 $6 +$1 +10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 31 $728 −$578 -79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $4 11m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $20 12m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 48m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 48m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $3 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $18 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $7 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $102 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $103 15h
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House SELL Yes 41¢ $196 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $91 28h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $114 37h
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House SELL Yes 42¢ $201 2d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $108 2d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $40 2d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $40 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $7 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $20 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $25 2d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $112 2d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $61 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 79¢ $71 2d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $64 2d
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? BUY No 69¢ $8 2d
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? BUY No 69¢ $5 2d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $64 2d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $68 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,663.71 · official $3,664.29 (match) · 2991 history records