Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:25:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc320…6382 crypto 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$18 (-31%) realized −$23 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%8W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$23
other 12% −$2
sports 9% +$4
world 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-44.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -56.3% -60.4% 20% 20% -11.9%
≤30d 30 -38.3% -44.2% 27% 27% -51.6%
≤90d 30 -38.3% -44.2% 27% 27% -51.6%
all 30 -38.3% -44.2% 27% 27% -51.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.2% 27% -51.6%
10% -49.6% 27% -56.2%
15% -54.4% 27% -60.4%
20% -58.9% 27% -64.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -65% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$23
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses8 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 33
History coverage23d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 21¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-60%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June 13, 2026? No 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $4 +$5 +119%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 28 $1 +$2 +211%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 26 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 26 $1 +$2 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 26 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 24 $1 +$2 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 24 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 23 $1 +$1 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 23 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 23 $11 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY 20¢ $2 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 20¢ $1 9h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $4 9h
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY No 5¢ $1 31h
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY No 5¢ $1 31h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 39¢ $3 31h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $3 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $3 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.40 · official $2.40 · 46 history records