Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:37:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc325…a55b other 128 markets active 2h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$59 (-0%) realized −$58 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%13W / 114L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$23
14 days−$36
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 25% −$23
sports 24% −$9
politics 21% −$10
crypto 8% −$15
finance 5% −$9
tech 5% −$10
culture 5% −$1
world 3% −$1
economics 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -1.3% -10.7% 5% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 59 -0.9% -10.3% 8% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 106 -0.6% -10.1% 9% 0% -9.9%
all 127 -0.5% -10.0% 10% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$58
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses13 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)127 / 128
History coverage101d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Florida Panthers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? No 94¢ 92¢ $41 $40 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 18 $174 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 18 $39 $0 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $123 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $115 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 17 $52 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $47 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $310 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $143 −$1 -1%
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $43 −$1 -2%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $101 −$2 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $252 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $55 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 15 $52 −$6 -12%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $350 −$4 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $55 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $95 −$2 -2%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $55 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $40 $0 -1%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $113 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 12 $90 −$2 -2%
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $15 $0 -1%
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 11 $58 −$1 -1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 11 $103 −$1 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $106 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $57 +$1 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 10 $57 $0 -1%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $63 −$2 -3%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $46 $0 -1%
Will a player representing Portugal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 09 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $86 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $266 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $638 −$4 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 05 $106 −$1 -1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 05 $49 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 04 $119 −$2 -2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $106 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $112 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $65 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Jun 02 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 02 $99 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $52 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $123 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $52 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? May 28 $63 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Florida Panthers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champio BUY No 94¢ $41 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $56 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $57 9h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 98¢ $58 9h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $58 15h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $39 16h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $39 23h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $54 23h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $54 29h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $37 30h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $37 38h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $52 39h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $52 45h
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $47 45h
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $47 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $53 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $53 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $51 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $51 2d
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $49 2d
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 96¢ $31 3d
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 96¢ $19 3d
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $42 3d
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $43 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $53 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $47 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $6 3d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $54 3d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $54 3d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $55 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.27 · official $40.27 (match) · 510 history records