Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:32:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C3 0xc326…1db1 tech 187 markets active 0h ago coverage 55d ⚠
BOTnot copyable tech specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$26,146 (+34%) realized +$23,744 · open +$2,402
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate68%102W / 49L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$407per market
Trades / day60.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$17,499now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 55d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 46% +$692
other 39% +$4,735
world 12% +$994
politics 3% +$97
finance 0% +$85
sports 0% +$135
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +15.4% +4.4% 70% 46% -0.7%
≤30d 91 +36.0% +23.0% 75% 44% +0.1%
≤90d 151 +33.5% +20.8% 68% 35% -4.1%
all 151 +33.5% +20.8% 68% 35% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.8% 35% -4.1%
10% ← realistic here +9.2% 22% -13.3%
15% -1.3% 15% -21.7%
20% -11.0% 9% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +51% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
13.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$39 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.27 per $1 lost it wins $3.27
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$17,499
Realized+$23,744
Unrealized+$2,402
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses102 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions36
Markets (closed)151 / 187
History coverage55d ⚠
Avg bet$407
Trades / day60.4
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026? No 78¢ 98¢ $8,146 $10,295 +$2,149 (+26%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 84¢ 86¢ $1,991 $2,041 +$50 (+3%)
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $828 $852 +$24 (+3%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 92¢ 96¢ $786 $814 +$28 (+4%)
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? Yes 60¢ 75¢ $506 $638 +$131 (+26%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 79¢ 88¢ $552 $620 +$68 (+12%)
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 96¢ $402 $434 +$31 (+8%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $305 $306 +$1 (+0%)
Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? No 50¢ 88¢ $145 $256 +$111 (+76%)
Will any AI model reach 1550 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? No 79¢ 92¢ $153 $178 +$25 (+17%)
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? No 76¢ 76¢ $166 $166 −$0 (-0%)
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 68¢ 64¢ $136 $129 −$7 (-5%)
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 24¢ 14¢ $196 $112 −$84 (-43%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 87¢ 88¢ $87 $88 +$0 (+1%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $76 $77 +$2 (+2%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $81 $73 −$8 (-10%)
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31? No 80¢ 90¢ $63 $71 +$8 (+12%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? Yes 32¢ 26¢ $57 $46 −$11 (-19%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $44 $46 +$1 (+3%)
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $23 $32 +$9 (+41%)
Will any AI model reach 1530 Math Arena Score by June 30, 2026? Yes 66¢ 20¢ $99 $29 −$70 (-71%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 53¢ 55¢ $27 $27 +$1 (+3%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 8¢ $43 $25 −$18 (-42%)
Grok 4.4 released by July 31? Yes 39¢ 47¢ $19 $23 +$4 (+21%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $29 $20 −$9 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $577 +$185 +32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1,061 +$138 +13%
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $75 +$29 +39%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $731 +$19 +3%
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa Jun 17 $134 −$12 -9%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 17 $13 −$5 -35%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 16 $245 +$37 +15%
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $10 −$3 -33%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $133 −$33 -25%
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 16 $40 −$12 -29%
Grok 4.4 released by June 30? Jun 16 $222 +$33 +15%
Grok 4.4 released by June 15? Jun 16 $404 +$9 +2%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1,391 +$77 +6%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 15 $44 +$13 +30%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Jun 15 $431 +$24 +6%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Jun 15 $98 −$8 -8%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? Jun 15 $28 −$28 -97%
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$3 -32%
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on J Jun 15 $1 $0 -5%
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $32 −$6 -20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $275 +$54 +20%
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? Jun 14 $21 +$2 +9%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $36 +$3 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $75 +$4 +5%
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $50 +$41 +80%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $282 +$49 +17%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $58 −$58 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $77 +$7 +9%
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $12 +$2 +20%
Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by September 30? Jun 13 $15 +$3 +17%
AI bubble burst in 2026? Jun 13 $248 +$21 +8%
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Exam? Jun 13 $4 +$16 +400%
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam? Jun 13 $12 +$8 +64%
Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Jun 13 $20 +$20 +96%
Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Jun 13 $56 +$10 +18%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Jun 13 $238 +$12 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 12 $49 +$8 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 12 $55 +$9 +16%
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? Jun 12 $664 −$51 -8%
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $148 +$52 +36%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? Jun 12 $109 +$85 +78%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $45 −$6 -13%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $244 −$31 -13%
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1500+? Jun 11 $373 +$31 +8%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $382 +$51 +13%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $593 +$166 +28%
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Con Jun 10 $322 +$92 +28%
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? Jun 10 $57 +$18 +32%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard d Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $42 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 81¢ $121 17m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 78¢ $36 2h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 78¢ $3 2h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 78¢ $15 2h
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $87 2h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $32 2h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $16 3h
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 3h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 78¢ $63 3h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 80¢ $128 3h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $26 3h
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 3h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 79¢ $31 5h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 79¢ $4 5h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 79¢ $4 5h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 79¢ $1 5h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 79¢ $5 5h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 79¢ $81 5h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 87¢ $87 5h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 87¢ $87 5h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 87¢ $87 5h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 81¢ $24 8h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $42 8h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $26 8h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 60¢ $1 9h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 60¢ $29 9h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 72¢ $36 9h
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $81 9h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 51¢ $10 9h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 48¢ $39 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,498.58 · official $17,495.33 (match) · 3500 history records